Before I get started with the NFL Week 9 picks, I’ll make a promise to lead off tomorrow’s column with my thoughts on the World Series. I’ve spent a lot of time writing about baseball, and the Phillies in particular, over the last six months. I’m not trying to ignore the elephant in the room. I will break down the Yankees’ 27th championship at length tomorrow. For now, since it is a Thursday tradition during football season, I’ll stick with the picks column. But let me take a moment to congratulate the Yankee fans who visit this blog regularly even though the anti-Yankee sentiment is fairly obvious. The Yankees had the best team this year. So carry yourselves with pride this offseason. Just go easy on the over-the-top statements like, “Order is restored!” As for the Phils, they won 205 games over the last two seasons, including two postseasons. They defended their title by taking the Yankees to six games in the World Series. I know better than to mope around for too long.

On to the picks.

Last week’s record: 4-9

Season record: 54-61-1

Home teams are in caps.

Kansas City (+6.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Question of the Week: Who in their right mind would want to play the Chiefs coming off a bye?

Alright, there are probably 28 teams that wouldn’t mind playing the Chiefs, but I think the Jags have quit on their season. That was evidenced by last week’s 30-13 loss to previously winless Tennessee. One other important note: David Garrard isn’t very good. He completed 14 of 27 passes for 139 yards and two interceptions against the same defense that allowed 59 points to the Patriots. Yeah, in case you haven’t picked up on this yet, it may be an angry edition of the NFL picks.

Baltimore (-3) over CINCINNATI

Question: Where does Ray Rice rank among the top NFL running backs?

Let’s figure that out right now. Statistically speaking, he’s 10th in the NFL in rushing yards this season. But we know Rice is sharing carries with Willis McGahee and even Le’Ron McClain to some extent. So let’s go at this another way. If you were starting a team, and you could draft any running back in the league, what pick would Rice go? Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson would go No. 1 and 2. Maurice Jones-Drew would probably go third. But who else would get picked before Rice? Steven Jackson? Ronnie Brown? DeAngelo Williams? Michael Turner? I think I’d take Rice with the fourth pick. The guy always seems to make plays in the fourth quarter of close games. Consider me a Ray Rice fan.

Houston (+9) over INDIANAPOLIS

Question: What’s going to happen with Steve Slaton?

Slaton’s fantasy football owners can relax. He will get his job back even though he was benched after one carry last week. Slaton has been treating the football like a bag of dog crap this season. He’s fumbled seven times and lost five. Texans coach Gary Kubiak benched him after he fumbled on his opening carry of the game last week. Then Ryan Moats played in Slaton’s place and had 23 carries for 126 yards and three touchdowns. The ironic part is that Moats struggles with the same problem that paved the way for his opportunity last week. Moats was drafted by the Eagles in the third round of the 2005 draft with the idea that he’d be Brian Westbrook’s eventual replacement. Then Moats reported to training camp and fumbled almost every time he touched the ball. He had a grand total of 55 carries his rookie year and fumbled three times. He only carried the ball 22 times his second season and was cut in training camp during his third year. Leading into last week’s game, Moats had a total of 118 carries in 30 NFL games. Don’t expect him to carry the load the rest of the way.

ATLANTA (-10) over Washington

Question: Is Jim Zorn still the coach of the Redskins?

Yeah, he survived the bye week. Speaking of the Redskins, you know who I don’t miss? Tony Kornheiser on Monday Night Football. He was the worst. I hated when they’d come back from the halftime show, and Kornheiser would monopolize the lead-in to the second half by saying things like, “In the eyes of a newspaper columnist, I think the story of this game is how the Washington Redskins may have hit the lowest point any franchise in the history of sports — and maybe even the history of business.” Then he’d spend the entire second half interrupting the broadcast with questions like, “Jaws, if you’re starting a franchise, and you’re trying to win games in this league, is Jason Campbell your top choice for a starting quarterback?” Then Jaws would say something like, “No, but it’s not like the Redskins have a better option.” Then Kornheiser would scream, “BUT SHOULDN’T THEY?! THEY’RE AN NFL FRANCHISE ON THE BRINK OF DISASTER! SHOULDN’T THEY!?” Mike Tirico, “Back to the game, guys, it’s third-and-10 from the Atlanta 45.”

Green Bay (-10) over TAMPA BAY

Question: When will Green Bay escape the post-Brett Favre malaise?

Who knows? But since this is an angry picks column, let me share the Favre-related column tidbit I learned this week that almost made me puke. It comes from Peter King’s Monday Morning Quarterback column.

Favre told me he pulled or strained his groin in practice on Wednesday and took it easy in practice for the rest of the week. There was never any question he’d play, he said. But about an hour before the game, during pregame warmups at Lambeau with the groin wrapped tightly, he aggravated the muscle on the field. “I told T-Jack [backup Tarvaris Jackson] and [offensive coordinator] Darrell Bevell I may not be able to do it,” he said. “I didn’t know if I’d be able to drop back very well. After I aggravated it, there was no way I was going to be able to move around in the pocket very much. We never called one bootleg the whole game. But we made it through OK.”

And now, I wondered, how was the groin four hours and a lot of lost adrenalin later?

“It’s throbbing right now,” he said.

Very dramatic, Brett. Heroic stuff.

CHICAGO (-3) over ARIZONA

Question: Which quarterback is better at aggravating his fan base: Kurt Warner or Jay Cutler?

Tough one. Warner is maddening because he has no regard for taking care of the football. He’ll throw interceptions into double coverage and attempt the same throw on the next possession. He’ll drop the ball on the turf while he’s getting sacked, even if he’s staring down the pass rush the entire play. He’ll throw picks because his arm’s getting tired, and he doesn’t want to wait until fourth down to punt it. Cutler’s pretty much in the same boat. They both have 11 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. Cutler has seven fumbles to Warner’s four. Cutler has been sacked 15 times, while Warner has only been dropped 14. I’m going to have to give the award for quarterback-who-should-be-good-but-really-isn’t to Cutler over Warner. Congratulations, Jay.

Miami (+10.5) over NEW ENGLAND

Question: Will this game be fun to watch?

Not if Belichick can help it. The Patriots have the Colts, Jets and Saints the following three weeks, so this will be the classic Belichickian, “I’m not going to show you anything we’re saving for next week” 20-10 victory. The only thing that could be mildly entertaining is the postgame press conference when someone asks Belichick how he stopped the Wildcat offense. That’s the best. The look on Belichick’s face is always priceless when that question comes up. It looks like he’s reacting to a reporter who decided to drop his pants rather than ask a question. The Dolphins burned the Pats with that gimmick offense once last year, and now Belichick absolutely despises any mention of Wildcat. The Patriots may be the only team in the NFL to never run a single Wildcat formation. His typical response to the Wildcat question is something like this, “Oh, I don’t know about that formation you just mentioned … We saw that they had a rushing quarterback lined up behind center in some formations, so we identified him and tackled him.”

NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Carolina

Question: Who’s going to beat the Saints?

Nobody in the next three weeks. After the Panthers, they have the Rams and Bucs. So they’ll likely be 10-0 when they host the Patriots on November 30. I could see Belichick and Brady firing up the team with speeches about how nobody goes 16-0 besides the Patriots. I guess I could see the Patriots beating the Saints. They have the right formula. A team with a great defense and an OK offense isn’t going to knock off the Saints. You have to assume New Orleans is going to hang 30 points on you. The Saints have put up at least 45 points in four of their seven wins, and their low point total of the season is 24 against the Jets. So you need an offense that can score 30, and you need a defense that can make an occasional stop or force a turnover. The Patriots have the right formula. The Cowboys have the right formula, and they play the Saints on December 19. Atlanta has a chance on December 13. Besides that, the Saints have the Bucs and Panthers twice, the Rams and Redskins. I’m calling a 15-1 season for the Saints.

Detroit (+10) over SEATTLE

Question: Who cares?

Not me.

Tennessee (+4) over SAN FRANCISCO

Question: Does Jeff Fisher feel stupid about waiting so long to play Vince Young?

He should. The season’s over for the Titans at 1-6, and they just realized they have a decent team when Vince Young is the quarterback. When he lines up in the shotgun, the defense has to account for the potential quarterback draw (Young ran 12 last week) and keep an eye on the best stop-and-go runner in the league in Chris Johnson (24 carries, 228 yards, 2 TDs last week). So the running options alone kept the Jacksonville defense pinned to the line of scrimmage. And then Vince Young, even with his shaky passing fundamentals, completed 15 of 18 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown. Be grateful the Patriots played the Titans two weeks before the owner, Bud Adams, forced Fisher to start Young over Kerry Collins.

San Diego (+5) over GIANTS

Question: What’s up with Eli Manning?

Either the plantar fasciitis is really bothering Eli, or his one Super Bowl season was a complete fluke. Eli was diagosed with plantar fasciitis on October 4, and he’s supposedly having trouble planting his back foot into the ground when he throws. Regardless, here are his quarterback ratings by month this season.

September: 104.1

October: 82.7

November: 55.7

The last three weeks — all three of which were Giants’ losses — Eli had a rating of 61.0 against the Saints, 47.5 against the Cardinals and 55.4 against the Eagles. By the way, that injury won’t heal this season. It requires 4-6 weeks of rest.

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas

Question: How bad will I need an Eagles win on Sunday night?

Pretty bad, and I think I’ll get it. The Eagles have actually owned the Cowboys in the Andy Reid era. They have won seven of their last nine at home against the Cowboys. Ten times this decade, they beat the Cowboys by 20 or more points, including a 44-6 drubbing with a playoff berth at stake in the regular-season finale last year. Here’s my only concern with the Eagles. They can’t sustain drives on offense. Of the Eagles’ 20 touchdown drives this season, only three have been longer than six plays. They basically score on long strikes to DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin, or they score directly off turnovers. I’m not complaining about the big plays, but everyone knows great teams have to be able to put together an occasional clock-killing 12- or 15-play scoring drive once it gets cold.

Pittsburgh (-3) over DENVER

Question: Has Denver been exposed?

Yeah, Baltimore exposed the Broncos last week. Cover the short passes, challenge Kyle Orton to beat you deep, and you can beat the Broncos. Have at it, Pittsburgh.

4 Comments for “Key NFL storylines for Week 9”

1. Tom Stanley Says:
   November 5th, 2009 at 6:45 am

   I was on Yahoo and found your blog. Read a few of your other posts. Good work. I am looking forward to reading more from you in the future.

   Tom Stanley

2. UP Says:
   November 5th, 2009 at 9:42 am

   Is it true? Will you really be in LOwell tonight at the Pollard Library at 7 pm to discuss this blog business?

3. Primo Deano Says:
   November 5th, 2009 at 10:53 am

   Great Series. The Phillies were a force to be reckoned with. Utley & Lee were ridiculous. Charlie Manuel is the man. I was on the edge of my seat all series until Mo’s last pitch. I’m ready for a rematch in 2010.

   That being said… Let’s turn back the clock to April 27th.

   http://thanksforplaying.weei.com/general/yankees-no-longer-a-threat-to-sox/

   I feel so good after reading that.

4. TheGravy Says:
   November 5th, 2009 at 12:50 pm

   Brett Favre is a self-mutilator. He performed is own circumscison in front of a vanity mirror while attempting to control his facial grimaces. Why? Because that’s what a cowboy would do. Then he went out and threw for 250 and 2.

   He’s the type of guy that would break his pinky to say he played with a broken hand. In his mind, every camera is on him, while he is moving in slow motion, with Chariots of Fire playing in the background. While its raining.

   In the final battle of good versus evil, Brett Farve leads the huddle.

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