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Making the Week 5 NFL Picks 10.08.09 at 8:01 am ET
By Dan Guttenplan

After posting a 7-7 record with my weekly NFL picks last week, I’m 32-30 on the season. That means after you pay your bookie the juice (10 percent interest rate on lost bets), I’m costing you money. I know what you’re thinking. “Why should I continue to take your advice?” You shouldn’t. But you should continue reading this predictions column because I can make this guarantee: I will always provide you with an accurate schedule and spreads. I can’t make any guarantees on the rest of the column.

Let’s get right to the picks. Home teams are in caps.

Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS

Question of the Game: Are the Rams the new Lions?

Listen, I don’t want to pass that torch in Week 5. The Browns, Chiefs and Bucs are doing everything they can to earn that title, and it’s not fair to crown the Rams this early. But I’ll say this about the Rams. They have all the signs of an 0-16 team. They lost three of their four games by 19-plus points. The other game — a 9-7 loss to the Redskins — was the type of game that gives any terrible team a false sense of hope. By the way, did you know the Rams took Howie Long’s son, Chris Long, with the No. 2 overall selection in the 2008 Draft? Going into Week 5, the defensive end out of University of Virginia has a total of seven solo tackles and zero sacks on the season. That should be a lesson for all NFL GMs who are considering drafting the sons of famous former NFL athletes who have flat-tops. I have nothing to say about Minnesota or Brett Favre. Moving on.

Dallas (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY

Question: Isn’t it funny that Tony Romo replaced Drew Bledsoe as the Cowboys’ starting quarterback?

Poor Dallas fans. The parade of incompetent quarterbacks passing through that city since Troy Aikman’s 14th concussion is tough to stomach. Anthony Wright, Quincy Carter, Clint Stoerner, Chad Hutchinson, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Henson, Drew Bledsoe and now Tony Romo. And make no mistake — Bledsoe and Romo basically are the same player. When the game is on the line, each quarterback will drive his respective team all the way down the field, rope his fans into believing one more time, and then throw the most asinine interception you’ve ever seen. I’d love to see a YouTube clip of the worst interceptions thrown by Drew Bledsoe and Tony Romo. It would look like the sky started puking end-over-end punts into the opposing team’s secondary.

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Washington

Question: How much would someone have to pay you to watch this game in its entirety?

Gross game. I don’t even want to write about it.

PHILADELPHIA (-15) over Tampa Bay

Question: The Eagles are giving 15 points? What is this, 2004?

Evidently, Andy Reid thinks it’s 2004, because he just signed Jeremiah Trotter to be his starting middle linebacker. Yeah, Trotter. You know, the guy the Eagles allowed to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2002 season because they believed he was washed up. The same Trotter the Eagles released in the 2007 preseason because his knees were nearly in the same condition as Ted Williams’ head. The same Trotter who’s been retired for the last two seasons. Regardless, Donovan McNabb is back this week, and Brian Westbrook is temporarily healthy, so I’m rolling with my new favorite player, DeSean Jackson, and the Birds.

GIANTS (-15.5) over Oakland

Question: Did you just take two teams that are giving 15-plus points?

Damn right, I did. And to give you a better idea of the degree of separation between the good teams and the awful teams in the NFL, I just took two 15-point favorites with serious issues at quarterback. The Eagles have McNabb returning in a flak jacket thanks to a broken rib. Eli Manning has plantar fasciitis, which won’t heal any time this season. But the Raiders are in slightly worse shape, since their coach may or may not be in jail by Sunday.

Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO

Question: Did Eric Mangini actually do something smart this week?

I actually think he did something smart each of the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, he named Derek Anderson his starter, ending the Brady Quinn experiment before the Notre Dame alumnus noodled any more balls into double coverage. Then, this week, he pulled one of the best addition-by-subtraction trades I’ve seen in a while and still managed to get a starting receiver, a special teams ace, and third- and fifth-round picks in exchange. Granted, Braylon Edwards might get his act together in New York. But he was finished in Cleveland. Once you punch one of Lebron James’ buddies on his home turf — and it also happens to be a contract year for Lebron — you’re a dead man walking in that city. One day, Lebron calls you “childish.” The next day, you’re cleaning toilets in Lebron’s home casino.

BALTIMORE (-8.5) over Cincinnati

Question: Are the Ravens still complaining about last week’s referees?

Note to Ray Lewis: Everyone knows you got hosed on a few calls last week. It happens. But why the sour grapes? The Patriots didn’t exactly get away with murder (at the 2000 Super Bowl).

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over DETROIT

Question: Will the Lions establish a distinct home-field advantage after that win two weeks ago?

Only if you consider a half-full stadium and a local blackout a distinct home-field advantage. But here’s my prediction for this one: It will be 17-17 at halftime. You’ll catch the score and think to yourself, “Wow, the Lions aren’t that bad anymore.” Fifteen minutes later, you’ll see a score update: Pittsburgh 38, Detroit 17. I never actually watch Detroit games, but I might tune in this week just to see how the Lions routinely manage to allow 21 points in the time it takes me to check what’s in the fridge.

Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Question: How many ways does the Michael Crabtree signing reek of desperation?

Let’s count. 1. The 49ers were desperate because their previous No. 1 receiver was the 68-year-old Isaac Bruce. 2. Crabtree was desperate because if he didn’t sign in the next six weeks, he would have to go back in the draft and likely fall from his previous spot at No. 10 overall. 3. Crabtree also was desperate because he was losing money by the week, since his salary for 2009 will be prorated. 4. The person in your fantasy football league who picked up Crabtree yesterday was desperate because he’s banking on a rookie receiver who has never seen the 49ers playbook and won’t play for two more weeks.

New England (-3) over DENVER

Question: Did you find it weird when Rodney Harrison told Tom Brady to take off his skirt?

I did. I get Rodney’s point. Brady seemed preoccupied with the back judge last week, repeatedly urging him to make roughing-the-passer calls. But here’s where Rodney’s point lost some luster in my eyes. He texted Brady after the game, letting him know he was going to take a shot at him. Then he evidently shared his plan with Dan Patrick and Tony Dungy prior to the Sunday night broadcast on NBC. Patrick teed it up for him by asking him what he thought of the roughing-the-passer calls. Without missing a beat, Rodney looked at the camera, delivered his line, smirked, and everyone reacted as if Rodney just said he hated America. So to be clear, I’m fine with the statement. I agree with the sentiment. I’m not as psyched about watching studio shows in which the on-air personalities pass off staged conversations as impromptu events. ”Watch NBC’s Sunday Night Football, where anything can happen as long as we script it first!”

Houston (+5.5) over Arizona

Question: Is this game relevant for any other reason than fantasy football purposes?

No. Although it would make a great Monday night game. Then you could spend all day Monday listening to your co-workers talk about how they need Kurt Warner and Andre Johnson to outscore Matt Schaub and Steve Slaton. Just to drill home the point, nobody wants to hear about your fantasy football team unless they’re in your league. Literally nobody.

Jacksonville (-1) over SEATTLE

Question: Doesn’t Seattle have the best home-field advantage in the league?

Possibly, but no player is able to successfully bring the 12th man to his knees as quickly as Seneca Wallace.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE

Question: Could the Titans be 0-6 going into their bye week?

It’s possible. In fact, it’s probable. After facing Peyton Manning on Sunday night, the Titans (0-4) play at New England next week. It sounds like Vince Young should start getting his arm loose. What’s that? He’s sobbing uncontrollably on the bench?

Jets (-2) over MIAMI

Question: Will Joe Namath make an appearance in Miami?

We can only pray.

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8 Comments for “Making the Week 5 NFL Picks”

  1. Because I Can Says:

    Does your 32-30 record have any correlation with your inability to win fantasy football over the last 9 years?

    “I’m keepin’ it real!” Clueless, 1995

  2. KD Says:

    Doubting my Raiders again? Laughable.

    Although the Giants secondary has proven itself thus far, have never seen JaMarcus Russell in top form. And if you haven’t noticed, J-Russ is at the top of his respective game! You can also expect at least 30 yards rushing from Justin Fargas this week. Can you say “Fantasy Sleeper”?

    With that being said, I see this match-up as a defensive battle.

    Final Score:
    Raiders 14, Giants -30

  3. eddy Says:

    um KD JRuss sucks balls hes got a 35 percent completion percentage, thats terrible
    he did terrible against my broncos and he’ll do almst as bad vs the giantssss
    I dont know what fantasy world ur livin in but jamarcus is the worst qb in the nfl

  4. KD Says:

    um, Brady Quinn and Kyle Boller take offense to your last comment. They are both vying to be worst QB in the league, and think you should wait until week 17 before you make your final decision. I’m disregarding your entire statement solely for the way you spell your name. As for your overall demeanor…..

    Tune up the band!

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  6. Patricia Dinucci Says:

    One year after MJ’s death and i still feel sad.. He was the greatest!

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