You already know it’s going to be a huge week in the NFL. We have the annual meeting between the Pats and Colts, the final meeting between the Steelers and Bengals and the first Thursday night game since Week 1. Rather than waste time, let’s get right to the picks.

Last week’s record: 7-6

Season record: 61-67-1

Home teams are in caps.

Chicago (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO

Question of the week: How do you feel about the first week of Thursday night football?

I’m thrilled about it, but my wife could probably do without it. And I’m sure that’s probably the common sentiment across America. Let’s face it, the NFL is probably the bane of every marriage counselor’s existence. Every year around August, we start putting a bug in the ears of women everywhere, completely overselling our Sunday routines. “Honey, I can’t wait for the NFL season. It’s my favorite part of the year. It gives me a chance to catch up with all of my old buddies (read: people who sit near me at the bar) that I’ve neglected for the last eight months. Sundays are special to me.” For the first few weeks, your significant other might even be happy for you around 1 o’clock on Sundays. “Have fun at the bar today.” By Week 4, you’re getting cautious advice: “Now take it easy today. You know we have dinner plans on Tuesday night. Remember how you felt last week?” By midseason, the confused looks you used to get at 9 p.m. on Sundays have turned into disgusted death stares. “Oh, you did it again. Didn’t you?” I’m in my first year of marriage, and I still have the green light on Sundays. I’m not even sure I’ll broach the subject of Thursday night football. In fact, let me know how tonight’s game goes.

Jacksonville (+6.5) over JETS

Question: What happened to all the Mark Sanchez hype?

It’s lost some steam over the last few weeks. And I don’t see Sanchez turning it around any time soon. The Jets have lost four of their last five, and Sanchez ranks 30th in the NFL with a 53.3 completion percentage. The Southern California native doesn’t figure to thrive in November and December, when the Jets play four games at the Meadowlands, one at New England and one at Buffalo. And while we’re here, the Rex Ryan train also has lost some steam since the Jets’ 3-0 start. His team is allowing an average of 20.2 points per game over the last five weeks.

Denver (-3.5) at WASHINGTON

Question: Isn’t it ironic that Kyle Orton once played on the same team as Rex Grossman?

It is because the two players are polar opposites. Orton gets himself in trouble because he’ll go entire games without attempting a single pass downfield. He’s fine with the screens, check-downs and short sideline routes. But he’ll go entire games without attempting a single pass that travels 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. The Steelers defense intercepted Orton three times on Monday night simply by keeping all 11 defensive players within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage and closing passing lanes. So Orton is mistake-prone only because he’s so predictable in his refusal to make mistakes. Grossman, on the other hand, loved flashing his arm when he was with the Bears. He audibled out of the play calls just to attempt 50-yard passes on third-and-1. He’d throw into double-coverage in the end zone just because he was tired of picking up four yards at a time. He’d even completely disregard the game plan on a team that thrived on defense and special teams just so he could sling the rock into the smallest windows imaginable. Still, I’ll take Sexy Rexy 10 times out of 10. You can teach a dog to stop crapping on the rug, but you can’t teach the crap on the rug to be a dog.

PITTSBURGH (-7) over Cincinnati

Question: Am I still feeling good about the Steelers as my preseason pick for Super Bowl champion?

Absolutely. The Steelers (6-2) suffered both of their losses while Troy Polamalu was out with a knee injury. In both losses (to Chicago and Cincinnati), the opposing team put together a game-ending drive that sealed the Steelers’ defeat. There’s no way that would have happened with Polamalu on the field. He’s only played in 3½ games this season and he’s tied for fourth in the AFC with three interceptions and tied for seventh with10 passes defensed. With him in the lineup, the Steelers have allowed 12.8 points per game. Without him, they’ve allowed 22.0. The Steelers are 4-0 with Polamalu this season. They’ve beaten Tennessee, Cleveland, Minnesota and Denver. The Steelers have won 13 of their last 14 with Polamalu in the lineup over the last two seasons. Since he is 100 percent healthy at the moment, I’ll even take the Steelers as my Super Bowl pick leading in to Week 10.

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Buffalo

Question: Is there any way the Titans run the table and make the playoffs?

That’s been a topic of discussion this week, but I can’t imagine it happening. It’s tough to picture Vince Young leading any NFL team to 10 straight wins, particularly the Titans (2-6), who still have to play Houston, Arizona, Indianapolis, Miami and San Diego. Still, it’s unforgivable that Jeff Fisher stuck with Kerry Collins for so long considering the Titans immediately had the feel of an 11-5 team after they changed quarterbacks. I’m cheering for the Titans to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs by a game.

MINNESOTA (-17) over Detroit

Question: How much does this game mean to you?

It means everything. Forget about Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh or New England vs. Indianapolis. Any time I get to witness the Ol’ Gunslinger having fun, it’s the game of the week for me. I just hope No. 4 realizes how much fun he brings to the NFL … and society.

New Orleans (-14) over ST. LOUIS

Question: What should you do if you’re playing against Drew Brees this week in fantasy football?

Pray this game is not televised.

CAROLINA (+1.5) over Atlanta

Question: Are we still comparing Matt Ryan to Tom Brady in New England?

I know we all adopted Boston College alumnus Matt Ryan as one of our own last fall when he was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. This year, I think we’ll happily admit that “Matty Ice” is a native of Exton, Pa. He just lived in New England for four years of college. In his last three games (two of which were losses), Ryan threw four touchdown passes and six interceptions. Ryan ranks 20th in the league in passer rating (82.2), just behind Seneca Wallace (83.2).

Tampa Bay (+10) over MIAMI

Question: Why is Miami a 10-point favorite?

It’s a good question, because the Dolphins aren’t the type of team that posts lopsided victories. But you can’t discount the home-field advantage in Miami. Sure, the crowd doesn’t really care as much as other places such as Kansas City or Oakland, but it’s safe to say players get “distracted” in Miami. The Dolphins are 4-0 against the spread this season at home. The almost beat Indianapolis at home in Week 2 (a 27-23 loss). They beat Buffalo (38-10) and the Jets (31-27) in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively. And they had New Orleans on the ropes in Week 7 before falling 46-34. Miami sounds like the perfect place crappy employees should take their bosses to ask for raises. It seems people let their guard down in Miami more than most places.

OAKLAND (-2) over Kansas City

Question: Isn’t this the part of the column where you usually say, “Who cares?”

It is, but I actually do care about this game. The Chiefs have allowed 400-plus total yards in six of their eight games. I’m dying to see an offense led by JaMarcus Russell can put up 400 yards. Honestly, this game has huge potential. If you’re not interested in seeing JaMarcus Russell attempt a Hail Mary from his own 20-yard line at the end of the first quarter, this game isn’t for you.

ARIZONA (-8.5) over Seattle

Question: What’s on the mind of Kurt Warner’s fantasy football owners right now?

Based on first-hand experience, I can tell you we’re ecstatic about last week, but at the same time, we’re resigned to the fact that Warner will eventually lay a season-killing egg. Prior to the season, I did the math on Warner and figured that with a receiving corps that included Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston he’d throw about 32 touchdowns. Well, he has 16 through eight games, but it’s a fantasy-killing 16. Two weeks ago, he had five turnovers against the Panthers. Last week, he had five touchdowns against the Bears. Some weeks, Warner singlehandedly loses a fantasy matchup for your team. Other weeks, he carries your team. I can’t wait to lose in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

SAN DIEGO (-2) over Philadelphia

Question: Since this Eagles season has played out 10 times over the last 10 years, what part of the season is this?

This is the part where they hit rock bottom. Last year, the Eagles tied the Bengals on Nov. 16 to drop to 5-4-1. The tie was infuriating for several reasons. For one, the Eagles seemed to eliminate themselves from the playoff picture by failing to beat a 1-8-1 team. Perhaps a more frustrating aspect of the game was that Donovan McNabb didn’t realize an NFL game could end in a tie. Eagles fans fired up the “Get rid of Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb” talk after that game, and then the Birds showed that things actually could get worse the following week. After trailing 10-7 against the Ravens at halftime, Reid benched an interception-prone McNabb for Kevin Kolb, who threw three more picks in the second half, and the Eagles lost 36-7. Their record was 5-5-1. The season was over. Then the Eagles carried out another Reid-McNabb tradition — finishing the season strong — and they won five of their last six regular-season games before advancing to the NFC championship game.

Well, this year’s Birds dropped to 5-3 with a frustrating loss to Dallas on Monday night. The Eagles are 1-8-1 in their last 10 games decided by six points or less. Why? Because they can’t run a two-minute drill, Andy Reid consistently bungles clock management and McNabb falters down the stretch. The Eagles showed what they’re capable of on the West Coast last month when they lost to the Raiders. Prepare yourselves, Eagles fans. We’re approaching rock bottom.

Dallas (-3) over GREEN BAY

Question: Does anyone else miss former Sports Illustrated columnist Paul Zimmerman (Dr. Z)?

That guy was the best. He hasn’t written anything since his stroke last year, but if he were still writing, he would absolutely have ripped the Sunday Night Football broadcast crew last week for its shameless promotion of Cowboys receiver Miles Austin. Dr. Z was the most thorough NFL writer in the business. Up until last season, he literally requested game tapes of every single NFL game each season, and then he’d break down each position for his annual all-pro picks. Players started to feel more of a sense of pride for being named to Dr. Z’s team than the actual AP All-Pro team. He was so good at what he did, he was once offered a job as TV analyst for one of the major networks. He did it for one season before he was fired because he refused to stick with the predetermined talking points for the broadcast. For instance, if Dr. Z was calling the Pats-Colts game this weekend, the producers might say something like, “You have to appeal to the casual fan. Talk about the brilliance of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning all night.” Dr. Z wouldn’t take the bait. If it was 7-6 heading into the fourth quarter, he would talk about the two teams’ defenses.

Anyway, on Monday night, Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth went in with a plan that they had to talk about Miles Austin. They wanted to tell us about how he’s more than replaced Terrell Owens‘ production. They wanted to tell us about the huge numbers he’s put up since being moved to the starting lineup. The only problem was that Austin had zero catches for zero yards late in the third quarter. Then he beat Eagles cornerback Sheldon Brown with a double move — mainly because the Eagles corner was way too aggressive on the first move — and Austin had his one catch, a 49-yard touchdown grab. Collinsworth nearly shouted, “We’ve been trying to tell you about him all night!” Congratulations, Miles Austin. NBC says you’re our next NFL star.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over New England

Question: So will the Colts have the final laugh on the Patriots this decade?

I don’t think this is the last time these two teams will play each other this season, although I suppose the playoffs will be in 2010. If the teams do meet again, I think the Patriots will be a stronger team the next time they play. For now, I see Peyton Manning abusing the Patriots secondary. The Patriots’ young cornerbacks and safeties have looked great against the Titans, Bucs and Dolphins. Then again, the opposing quarterbacks were Kerry Collins, Josh Johnson and Chad Henne. Let’s see the Pats’ young guys keep up with Reggie Wayne and Co. before we send them to the Pro Bowl. Also, Patriots fans should be nervous about the fact that the Colts won their last two games by a combined seven points (against San Francisco and Houston). If you think Belichick was playing it close to the vest last week against Miami, it’s just as likely Manning was doing the same for the last two weeks. I just envision Manning coming out in some offensive set that completely baffles the Patriots defense — something like a hurry-up offense with an empty backfield. With Anthony Gonzalez back from injury, Peyton will have plenty of weapons. I’ll take the Colts by six this week, and then I’ll take the Patriots in January.

Baltimore (-11) at CLEVELAND

Question: Are you excited about the return of Brady Quinn?

Almost as much as New England’s first 18-inch snowstorm.

One Comments for “Peyton will be too much for Pats”

1. Benny Efird Says:
   February 9th, 2010 at 2:12 am

   Thanks to this post I do not seem like an idiot. I had an argument with my wife and this shows I was right. Thanks!

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