I posted a 6-8 record last week to push my overall record to 38-38 through five weeks. However, I was able to draw a few conclusions from last week’s games. Of the four teams that were favored by 10 points or more (Giants, Eagles, Steelers and Vikings), three teams covered the spread. In the four instances that a spread was three points or less, the underdog (Falcons, Seahawks, Dolphins and Broncos) won outright all four times. In the games in which the spread was between 3.5 and 10 points, the underdogs went 3-2. So my formula for this week is this: I’ll take all the favorites that are giving more than 10 points and all underdogs that are getting fewer than three points. If the spread is between 3.5 and 10, I’ll do whatever I want.

On to the picks. Home teams are in caps.

GREEN BAY (-13.5) over Detroit

Question of the Week: Are there any more Detroit-related losing streaks?

Actually, there are. Here’s one: If the Lions lose at Green Bay this week, they will set the record for most consecutive road losses to one opponent in NFL history. The record is 18. The Lions last won at Lambeau in December of 1991. And here’s another losing streak for Detroit. No person has visited Detroit in the last six months without losing faith in humanity.

TAMPA BAY (+3.5) over Carolina

Question: Is Bucs quarterback Josh Johnson already better than Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme?

Absolutely. Johnson actually played OK last week when Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott brought a relentless blitz package for the entire game. Johnson showed some courage, completing 26 of 50 passes for 240 yards, including two touchdowns and three interceptions. He took three sacks and rushed for another 40 yards. You have to remember Delhomme had a complete meltdown against the same pass rush in Week 1, completing 7 of 17 passes for 73 yards with four interceptions. Even in the Eagles’ Week 3 victory over the Chiefs, Todd Haley stopped calling passing plays in the second half because he feared for Matt Cassel’s safety. So I actually liked what I saw of Johnson last week. I only like what I see out of Delhomme when I bet against him.

Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS

Question: How far will the Saints drop in the power rankings after this loss?

I have no idea. WEEI.com has a guy, Joe Zarbano, who puts together NFL power rankings every Tuesday. It’s a thankless job. He probably spends eight hours looking back at each team’s record, measuring the strength of schedule, putting together some BCS-type formula and writing something clever after each team’s ranking. Then he gets about 10 comments on the bottom of the story that read, “You’re an idiot. How can you rank the the Bears (3-1) over the Packers (2-2)? The Packers beat the Bears in Week 1.” Why are people getting so upset about Week 5 power rankings? The Bears and Packers will play again. And then after 17 weeks of the NFL season, they may even play a third time. I guarantee the Bears aren’t going to allow Joe Zarbano’s power rankings to derail their season.

JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) over St. Louis

Question: When will everyone admit that Jags coach Jack Del Rio has lost his team?

I think yesterday should work for everyone. That’s when Maurice Jones-Drew vented to reporters about how he’s the second-highest paid “decoy” in the league behind Reggie Bush. Then he unleashed a series of metaphors, comparing running backs to pawns in chess and offensive linemen to ballroom dance partners. Regardless, I loved how M.J.D. unnecessarily brought Reggie Bush into the discussion. That should go over well in New Orleans. Bush will spend all day Thursday answering questions about whether he ever discussed his role in the Saints offense with Jones-Drew. Sean Payton will answer questions about whether he’s under-utilizing Reggie Bush. Teammates will have to answer questions about whether they’ve ever seen Jones-Drew and Bush hanging out together. Do they trade text messages? Doesn’t Randy Moss make more money than both of them? I’m fascinated by that statement.

Baltimore (+3) over MINNESOTA

Question: Am I happy with this pick?

Not at all. But I’m sticking to the formula. Regardless, something strange happened in the AFC North this season. The Bengals turned into last year’s Steelers — a tough defensive team with a quarterback capable of stealing a game late. The Ravens turned into last year’s Bengals — an offensive juggernaut capable of allowing 120 rushing yards to a third-tier running back like Cedric Benson. The Steelers turned into a team capable of losing to anyone — as was evidenced by the near-loss to the Lions last week. And the Browns turned into last year’s Browns — a team getting coached into the ground by a crappy Bill Belichick disciple.

PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland

Question: Are the Browns opposed to scoring touchdowns?

That’s a legitimate question. The Browns have scored three offensive touchdowns in five games. And to add salt to the wound, Browns coach Eric Mangini traded away his biggest red zone threat, Braylon Edwards, last week. Then Mangini’s players watched Edwards get into the end zone twice for the Jets on Monday night. Granted, one of the touchdowns was overturned after an instant replay review, but you get the point. When you’re an offensive coordinator, and your red zone options consist of Jamal Lewis, Jerome Harrison, Mike Furrey and Mohamed Massaquoi, you’re not exactly salivating on your play chart.

CINCINNATI (-5) over Houston

Question: Are Bengals fans excited about their team’s 4-1 start?

I’m going to say no. How can I tell? I just went to the Bengals web site, and a pop-up image of Cedric Benson flashed on the screen with the following plea: “Bengals fans, let’s sell out our game with the Houston Texans. Get your tickets now, let’s make it loud. Together, we’ll make The Jungle roar.” And if you’re single, I urge you to recite the last two sentences to the first woman you see in the same deadpan tone as Benson.

Kansas City (+6) over WASHINGTON

Question: If this is the nationally televised game at 1 p.m., what will you do?

I’ll turn off the TV and stare at the blank screen until 4 p.m.

Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND

Question: Is it too soon after Boston’s Black Sunday to gloat about the success of Philly sports teams?

Look, I’ve tried to go easy on New England sports fans this week. But Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel had two interceptions in the Birds’ victory over the Bucs last week. He leads the NFL in interceptions since 2005. He’s just awesome to have on your team, and I’m not sure you guys realize that.

SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona

Question: Is there a single player in the NFL as valuable to his team as Matt Hasselbeck?

Peyton Manning, but that might be it. The Seahawks are an 11-5 team with Hasselbeck at quarterback and a 5-11 team with Seneca Wallace behind center. Since the Seahawks will likely have Hasselbeck for six more games before his back flares up, let’s call them a 7-9 team and move on.

Buffalo (+9.5) over JETS

Question: How did that Terrell Owens experiment work out in Buffalo?

Apparently T.O.’s stint in Buffalo has gone so poorly, the Bills are fine with other teams violating tampering rules as long as they’re interested in taking No. 81 off their hands before next week’s trade deadline. Reporters in Chicago were openly asking Jay Cutler yesterday if he’d be happy to add T.O. to his receiving corps. Cutler seemed indifferent, and the folks in Buffalo were disappointed that he didn’t campaign for the former All-Pro receiver. Cutler should expect a UPS package tomorrow stocked with game film from T.O.’s days with the Eagles — sent by Trent Edwards.

Tennessee (+9) over NEW ENGLAND

Question: Have I picked a Patriots game correctly all year?

Not yet. But here’s the rationale behind this pick. The Patriots have struggled against the run at times, and Chris Johnson is the best back they’ve faced. If the Titans lose, it will likely be the last start of Kerry Collins’ career. He’s proven to be fairly resilient throughout his career, particularly when everyone was ready to quit on him. The Titans have a bye next week, so they’re at risk of dropping to 0-6 with two weeks to think about it. The custom for coaches around the NFL (outside of New England) is to give their players a few extra days off during the bye if the team is coming off a win. Jeff Fisher is one of a few coaches in the NFL who has enough job security that his players won’t quit on him; otherwise, they’ll be gone long before he is. I’m not saying the Titans will win the game, but as Lee Corso would say, “It may be closer than the experts think.”

ATLANTA (-3) over Chicago

Question: Why didn’t the Patriots trade for Tony Gonzalez in the offseason?

I’m not sure. I guess there’s always the lack-of-cap-room excuse, but Belichick always seems to make it work when he really wants someone. When you consider the Patriots’ major success in the draft in recent years has been the acquisition of Moss and Welker for picks, Gonzalez seemed like a perfect fit for one of the Patriots’ second-round picks. Now the Pats are struggling in the red zone, and Gonzalez is having one of his best seasons in Atlanta. 

Plus, there’s some history between Gonzalez and Belichick. Gonzalez loves to tell the story about the 2006 Pro Bowl when he played under Belichick. The Patriots coach put Gonzalez on the AFC’s kick return unit, and the Chiefs tight end let a first-half kickoff sail over his head without blocking anyone. He figured nobody blocked in the Pro Bowl. As he walked by Belichick on the sideline, the Patriots coach’s eyes were frozen on the field. Gonzalez thought he was off the hook until he heard Belichick mutter, “Why don’t you (expletive) block somebody, Gonzalez?” The Chiefs tight end was pissed, wondering why he was getting treated like a special teams rookie at the Pro Bowl. So he laid somebody out on the next kickoff. Afterward, he marched over to Belichick, who again had his eyes glued to the field. This time, he whispered, “Nice block.” Evidently, Coach Bill is able to get All-Pro tight ends to play like rookie special teamers in a Pro Bowl setting.

Denver (+4) over SAN DIEGO

Question: Does this spread make any sense?

No. Go ahead and make it the Lock of the Week.

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