The weekend before Thanksgiving always reminds me of my first trip to Foxboro in 2005. Earlier that fall, I had started as a part-time reporter covering high school sports for a newspaper in Gloucester. Like any sports reporter trying to break into the industry, I was working long hours for next to nothing. A few weeks before Thanksgiving, my boss asked me to cover a Thanksgiving Day high school football game. I declined the “opportunity” at first, but soon learned that my boss’ request wasn’t optional. For the first time in 25 years, I would spend Thanksgiving Day away from my family.

As part of the negotiation, my boss agreed to arrange for me to take a trip to Foxboro to cover a Patriots practice on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. He requested two press passes — one for me and one for him — and we agreed to meet in Foxboro. We mapped out our plan in the Gillette Stadium parking lot. I would work the local angle, asking players and coaches about their Thanksgiving Day football experiences even though they weren’t scheduled to play until that Sunday. My boss would write a preview story for that week’s Patriots game.

"I hated every minute of that." (AP)

The morning started with a Bill Belichick press conference. About 30 members of the media filed into a room with rows of tables and chairs and a small podium and projector screen in front. I can’t remember exactly what time the press conference started, but I know that Belichick emerged through a side door on the exact minute he was supposed to be there. He had on white sneakers, white mid-calf socks, gym shorts and a cutoff hooded sweatshirt. I waited through about 25 questions before I mustered up the courage to ask, “From your experience, what is the best part about playing on Thanksgiving Day? And what is the worst?” He stared me down with a confused look on his face, seeming to wonder why I had followed up a question about Larry Izzo with a question about Thanksgiving. He paused for what must have been 10 seconds. It seemed like five minutes. Then he answered, “We’re not playing on Thanksgiving this year. We’re just trying to focus on (whatever team they were playing that week).” In retrospect, I probably would have been disappointed if Belichick hadn’t blown me off during my first trip to Foxboro.

Once that press conference ended, the players’ locker room was opened to the media for about 40 minutes. I planned to find players who had played on Thanksgiving Day in high school, college or the pros. The Pats played the Lions on Thanksgiving in 2002, so I was looking for veterans. Here’s the problem with the 40-minute time span in which the press has access to the players: The players have no obligation to be in the locker room. Most of them lift weights during that time. Others watch film. But for the first 30 minutes of the 40-minute period, there were about three Patriots at their lockers. Two played special teams and one was a rookie who wasn’t really allowed to talk to the press. At that point, I thought I was sunk.

With about 10 minutes left in the media’s allotted time, a group of about 10 Patriots ventured in from the weight room. Tom Brady and Willie McGinest were the big media draws, but I also noticed that Doug Flutie had slipped through the crowd. The former Natick High and Boston College legend had surely played on Thanksgiving. I went over and asked him about 10 questions. Finally, I had a story. Over the next 10 minutes, I interviewed Christian Fauria, Ben Watson, Stephen Neal and Adam Vinatieri. With about one minute left in the media session, Tedy Bruschi strolled through a crowd of about 10 reporters, declared that he wasn’t doing interviews that day and ventured over to his locker. I practically fell on my face racing across the carpeted locker room. In a nervous delivery, I told him why I was there and asked if he could help me out. He said he could. In the final 60 seconds, I interviewed Bruschi, a guy who had returned to the NFL about a month earlier after suffering a stroke following the previous Pro Bowl. He shared that he felt thankful to be alive and playing the sport that he loved given the circumstances of the previous year.

I have never been more excited to write a story. I met my boss outside of the locker room and we traded notes. He had been stonewalled and didn’t have a story for the next day’s paper. I had quotes from several Patriots, but most importantly, Thanksgiving-themed quotes from Tedy Bruschi. I told my boss I would write the best story I’d ever written. He told me to transcribe the quotes and send them to him via e-mail, so he could figure out what to do with them. Feeling a little uneasy about the prospect of passing over all my quotes, I went home and wrote a long feature story about Bruschi’s stroke, his recovery and his thankfulness for the opportunity to be alive for another Thanksgiving. I thought it was the best story I had written to date.

The next day, I woke up and searched for my story on-line, only to find a stripped down version and, even worse, a shared byline with my editor. All of the quotes had been pulled from my story, and he ran it in a Q&A format. He changed the beginning entirely, replacing it with two sentences that read, “Like our football players in Gloucester, many New England Patriots have experience playing on Thanksgiving. Here are some quotes from a trip to Foxboro yesterday.”

I don’t even really remember how the rest of the story played out. I know I called my boss on Thanksgiving morning and delivered a rant that, at no point in the proceedings, included the words, ‘happy’ or ‘Thanksgiving.’ I know I took the rest of the weekend off and seriously considered the idea of not showing up to work on Monday. I know I eventually returned to my office and was rewarded for my understanding with a few other trips to Foxboro over the next two months. But the Tedy Bruschi story? That never ran. You can’t run a Thanksgiving Day-themed story on the day after Thanksgiving. For a while, I held out hope that the story would still be relevant the next year. It turned out I wasn’t even still at the same job by then. So one of the best stories I’ve ever written never saw the light of day. For a while, I worried that there would be no record of my first trip to Foxboro. Now, five years later, I finally have it in writing.

I’m feeling pretty good about today’s Best of the Week. Enjoy.

Story of the Week: University of Kansas football coach Mark Mangino received plenty of negative publicity this week on the heels of his team’s five-game losing streak. That’s not to suggest Mangino’s past behavior would have been acceptable had his team continued to win games. Mangino was accused of physical and verbal abuse by more than five former or current players this week. One player, whose brother had recently been shot, claims that when he dropped a pass in a game, Mangino threatened to send him back to St. Louis so he could get “shot up with (his) homies.” Another player said that, during a team meeting, he admitted that his father was an alcoholic. Mangino later used the information against his athlete by asking, “Are you going to be a lawyer or are you going to be an alcoholic like your dad?” Mangino will likely volunteer to visit sensitivity training so he can keep his job. Or he’ll issue a public apology. Or not …

Quote of the Week: Mangino addressed the accusations last evening during a radio interview. Rather than try to diffuse the situation, Mangino said this:

“We are sending kids out into the world prepared,” Mangino told the radio station. “But I can’t do the work of some parents, what they should have done before [the players] got to me. Some of these guys are bitter, they are bitter and [the allegations] are about that.

“There are some things that happen for 18 years of their lives that I can’t change in four years of college. Can’t do it. Can’t change their behaviors, can’t change their attitudes.”

E-mail of the Week: This one was sent by KD earlier this week.

“From the Onion. Couldn’t put it better myself.

“Regards, JRussFan#2Oakland”

Comment of the Week: Yesterday, I ran Favre Superfan’s response to Samuel Grozalsky’s claim that he’d take his Patriots clock and stadium picture down from his wall following Sunday’s loss to the Colts. Today, I’ll share KD’s advice to Samuel.

“Samuel – Take down that Pats clock and put up a McNabb Fathead! As the unofficial spokesman for Philadelphia Eagles fans, we would love another whiny, overreacting, half-supporter in our corner! And after reading your rant today, we know you’ve got what it takes! Just make sure you sign the petition to fire Andy Reid every week and you’re in.”

Tip of the Week: I’m taking my cue from Coach Belichick on this. Any time you know people want to pummel you with questions, show up in sweatpant shorts. It’s completely disarming! I know I’m buying a pair this weekend specifically for the next time my wife tells me, ”We need to talk.” That will be my cue to get the sweatpant shorts out and defend myself.

Conversation Starter of the Week: Explain to people that they need to cheer for the Redskins on the week of Thanksgiving. “Is there any better way to support our Native American ancestors than pulling for those Redskins?!”

What Would Belichick Do? Pretend you’re talking to a girl later tonight and you’re confronted by a guy of Sebastian Vollmer’s size. He tells you you’re talking to his girlfriend. What would Coach Bill do? He’d calmly go in for a kiss in hopes that he’d win over the girl without having to go through the small talk.

Stat of the Week: 150,000 — According to ESPN.com, that’s how many fantasy outcomes were affected by Maurice Jones-Drew’s slide at the 1-yard-line last week. So if you were affected by this, and you’ve been whining all week, please be quiet. You’re not alone. Plus, it could be worse. Some of us owned Ronnie Brown in two different leagues.

Video of the Week: If you enjoyed the HBO series, The Wire, this video is for you. It’s the top 100 quotes from the five-season series chopped into 10 minutes.

Take note, commenters: “You come at the king, you best not miss.”

I forgot to share a funny story about something that happened to me a couple of weeks ago. Two Thursdays ago, I gave a speech at the Pollard Library in Lowell as part of the Parker Lecture Series. I spoke about my experience writing for newspapers, magazines and blogs, and answered questions about the changing industry of sports journalism. The speech went well for about an hour, and then I opened the floor to questions. I was cruising through the first 10 or 15, and finally the organizer of the speech raised his hand to ask a question. I called on him, he cleared his throat and belted out the following “question.”

“Hey Dan, I was reading your blog today, and it looks like you make NFL picks every Thursday. It also looks like you’re not doing very well — something like 4-9 last week and 10 games under .500 on the season. Doesn’t that kill the credibility of anything you’ve said here tonight?”

That’s a fair point. Maybe I’m still making picks because I enjoy writing the column. Maybe it’s because I sincerely think each week will be the turning point in my picks season. Regardless, read it. Trust it. Bet on it.

Last week’s record: 7-7-1

Season record: 68-74-2

Home teams are in caps.

CAROLINA (-3) over Miami

Question: When will the bad Jake Delhomme rear his ugly head?

I’m sure Delhomme’s mopey sad-sack demeanor will return sooner rather than later, but things are going well in Carolina at the moment. In his last three games, Delhomme as led the Panthers (4-5) to a victory over Arizona, a close loss to the Saints and a victory over Atlanta. Who would have predicted the Panthers would have made it through that stretch with a 2-1 record? Why are the Panthers suddenly good after their 2-4 start? Because Jake Delhomme hasn’t thrown an interception in the last three games. He threw 13 picks in the first six games. In the next three weeks, the Panthers will face the Dolphins, Jets and Buccaneers, respectively. They could conceivably be 7-5 going into Week 14. Then they’ll have the Patriots, Vikings, Giants and Saints to finish the season. So if you miss the lovable loser, Jake Delhomme, he’ll be back in December.

DETROIT (-3.5) over Cleveland

Question: What would it take for this game to be considered the lead story on NFL highlight shows?

Good question. Let’s narrow it down to a list of three possibilities.

1. Lions fans set the field on fire before the game, forcing a change of venues.
2. Eric Mangini spends the entire game sitting down on the sidelines with his back to the field.
3. Brady Quinn gets caught making out with another Browns player on the sideline.

Buffalo (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Question: What effect will Dick Jauron’s firing have on Buffalo?

I can’t imagine it will have a negative impact. Let’s pretend you work for a boss who keeps falling asleep at his desk during the middle of the work day. It gets so bad that you and your co-workers eventually start shooting spit balls at your boss’ face on a daily basis. Just before it becomes painfully obvious to everyone that a change in leadership is needed, you actually start checking your boss’ pulse at the end of each day to make sure he’s still alive. How would you react if you showed up to work one day and your boss had been replaced by someone who could stay awake for eight hours straight? Wouldn’t you stop shooting spit balls for a couple days? Moral of the story: The Bills might not be terrible this week.

Pittsburgh (-10) over KANSAS CITY

Question: What happened to that Steelers’ Super Bowl prediction from last week?

If you read last week’s picks column, you know I picked the Steelers to repeat as champions based on Troy Polamalu’s return from injury. The Steelers were 2-2 without him this season and 4-0 with him leading in to last week’s game against the Bengals. Yes, they lost to the Bengals last week, but my theory still stands. Polamalu was knocked out of the game with an injury on the first defensive series. Polamalu may be out a couple more weeks due to an injury to the same knee he injured earlier this season. He’ll be back for the playoffs. Regardless, a tip of the cap to Polamalu for providing his best Bob Sanders impression this season.

Indianapolis (-1) over BALTIMORE

Question: How will Sunday night’s win over the Patriots affect the rest of the Colts’ season?

Before I answer that question, let me just say this is a stupid spread. The Colts are making a push for an undefeated season, and the Ravens laid an egg against the Browns on Monday night on the heels of losing four of their last five. Granted, the Ravens won, but they played the Browns to a scoreless tie in the first half. I don’t think the Ravens are a playoff team.

To answer the question as to how Belichick’s fourth-and-2 decision will affect the rest of the Colts’ season, I enjoyed my brother’s e-mail about this very topic.

“I’ll say this, Peyton Manning probably hated what Belichick tried to do. Not only did he see it as a potential problem, but also the beginning of a potential trend. I guarantee if you could sit Manning down and get an honest answer, he’d salute that decision all the way. And he probably can relate to those tough coaching decisions since he’s the player/coach of the Colts.”

GIANTS (-6.5) over Atlanta

Question: Aren’t both of these teams fading fast?

Absolutely. Whichever team loses this game is done for the season. The Giants (5-4) had a respite from their four-game losing streak last week thanks to a Week 10 bye. If they come back from a bye and drop a fifth straight game, you can write off their entire season. The Falcons (5-4) have lost three of four, with last week’s defeat coming at the hands of Jake Delhomme. The weird part about the NFC is that whichever team wins this game will probably make the playoffs. And maybe even the Super Bowl.

San Francisco (+6.5) over GREEN BAY

Question: Is Green Bay the most frustrating team to watch in the NFL?

With the exception of the Eagles, the answer is yes. I might not pick the Packers again this entire season. Even in last week’s victory over Dallas, the Packers frustrated the hell out of me. Let’s face it: Aaron Rodgers puts up huge fantasy stats, but he’s not much of a real-life quarterback right now. At one point last week, Rodgers ducked out of a sack, rolled to his right out of the pocket, planted both feet about a yard behind the line of scrimmage, patted the ball six times as he waited for his receivers to get open, was blindsided by a defensive lineman, fumbled the ball about 15 yards into the backfield and eventually turned the ball over. Rodgers waits for his receivers to get open as if he’s waiting for an uncrowded train at Kenmore Square at 6:30 p.m. on the night of a Red Sox game.

MINNESOTA (-10.5) over Seattle

Question: How is everyone enjoying the Favre Superfan! experience in the comments section?

If you haven’t read any of the comments from the Ol’ Gunslinger’s biggest fan, I encourage you to search for that alias in various comments sections from the last few weeks. Favre Superfan! is on fire. I know I usually wait until Friday to run a Comment of the Week, but there are plenty to choose from this week. So I’ll run one from Favre Superfan! right here.

In response to Samuel Grozalsky’s comments following Monday’s blog, in which Grozalsky said Belichick’s fourth-and-2 decision forced him to take the Patriots’ clock and stadium picture down from his wall, Favre Superfan! had this to say.

“Your Vikings clock and a picture of Brett’s return to Lambeau are in the mail Sam! You want 60 minutes of focus, fun, and leadership; follow America’s last real American. I even threw in a pair of Wrangler jeans sure to win over clients, bosses, and customers!”

Washington (+11) over DALLAS

Question: Are the Cowboys good or not?

That’s the weird part about the NFL this season. The Cowboys are 6-3, and you could argue that they haven’t played a single good team all season. They’ve beaten the Bucs (1-8), Panthers (4-5), Chiefs (2-7), Falcons (5-4), Seahawks (3-6) and Eagles (5-4). I’m not sure there’s a quality win in that bunch. The Cowboys lost to the Giants (5-4), Broncos (6-3) and Packers (5-4). None of those teams will be playing in late January. Considering the Cowboys typically collapse under Wade Phillips in late November and December, I’m just going to pick against them the rest of the way.

TAMPA BAY (+11.5) over New Orleans

Question: Who knew Sean Payton was Bill Belichick, Part 2?

I had no idea. But when reporters stumbled over each other coming up with the angle — What other NFL coach would have had the balls to go for it on fourth down like Belichick? — Payton’s name came up in every conversation. CNNSI.com columnist Peter King even called Payton to ask if he would have gone for it, and he doled out some Belichickian answer about how he couldn’t possibly answer the question without knowing the specific circumstances of that particular game (injuries, opposing quarterback, exhaustion level, etc.). It’s funny that Belichick is getting raked over the coals on this issue, but when an opposing coach is said to be capable of making the same mistake, I gain respect for him.

Arizona (-9) over ST. LOUIS

Question: Why does Larry Johnson get to play for the Bengals while Steven Jackson remains a member of the Rams?

Don’t ask me. Johnson forced his way out of Kansas City by bashing gays and criticizing his head coach’s lack of football experience. He had multiple instances of abuse of women reported in the last three years. And now he’s a member of the first-place Bengals. Steven Jackson has run for 915 yards in nine games for an offense that averages 10.1 points per game. He’ll likely piss away the best year of his career carrying the ball 350-plus times at 4.8 yards per carry on a last-place team. And we haven’t heard a single complaint out of Jackson. Life’s not fair.

NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Jets

Question: Can you give me a metaphor to set the tone for this game?

Sure. The Jets are a 4-year-old boy crying for his mommy while walking along the shoreline on a Hawaii beach. The Patriots are a tidal wave headed for the 4-year-old who fearfully looks in its direction. The Jets are screwed. Their coach literally cried in a team meeting this week. Their quarterback is ready to take a month off before the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, Belichick is stoically taking one on the chin this week as Tom Brady demands that his teammates remove his coach’s name from the negative news cycle. If I could predict a score for this game, based on the current state of both teams, the fact that Rex Ryan said he refused to kiss Belichick’s rings before the start of the season, and the fact that the Jets beat the Patriots in the first meeting this season, I’ll take: Patriots 49, Jets 0.

CINCINNATI (-9.5) over Oakland

Question: Can you estimate JaMarcus Russell’s stat line versus the Bengals defense?

I’m going to say 8 for 23 passing for 71 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Stay tuned tomorrow for a JaMarcus Russell-themed E-Mail of the Week from KD.

DENVER (-3) over San Diego

Question: What’s the difference between these two teams?

Coaching.

Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO

Question: Are you concerned that the Eagles are on 0-7 on Sunday nights since NBC took over the broadcast?

Nope. After watching the Eagles for 11 years in the Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb era, I can tell you this will be an Eagles’ win. It has all the common tell-tale signs. The Eagles appeared to hit rock bottom last week with their second straight loss. Brian Westbrook suffered his second concussion in four weeks and may have played his last game as an Eagle. The Eagles secondary is absolutely depleted. Cornerback Sheldon Brown is doubtful this week due to a leg injury, Ellis Hobbs was put on IR due to a spine injury, and nickel back Joselio Hanson is serving a four-game suspension for taking performance-enhancing drugs. Their strongside linebacker, Akeem Jordan, is out, so middle linebacker Will Weatherspoon will slide to weakside linebacker, and Chris Gocong will play the middle linebacker spot. Gocong is the fourth Eagle (Omar Gaither, Jeremiah Trotter, Weatherspoon, Gocong) to take a shot at the position since Pro-Bowl caliber middle linebacker Stewart Bradley tore his ACL in training camp. Everything looks awful for the Eagles right now.

But that’s when the Eagles thrive in the Reid-McNabb era. Donovan will throw for a 300 yards and three touchdowns in his return to his hometown. The Eagles will win easily. They’ll close out the regular season with wins in six of their last seven, and they’ll lose in the NFC Championship Game. If you think that’s a bold prediction, it’s not. The Eagles have made it to the NFC Championship Game five of the last eight years. This seems like one of those years.

Tennessee (+5) over HOUSTON

Question: Who is the best running back in the league?

Chris Johnson. There, I said it.

Now that we’ve all read just about every possible take on the Bill Belichick situation, let’s take a day to handicap the three-headed race for the top seed in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. Since it’s widely accepted that the Celtics, Cavs and Magic will spend the entire regular season battling for the top seed in the East, I’ll evaluate where each team stands at the moment.

First, let’s take a look at the Eastern Conference standings through three weeks of play.

1. Atlanta (9-2)
2. Miami (7-2)
3. Boston (8-3)
4. Orlando (8-3)
5. Cleveland (7-3)

For the purposes of this discussion, we’ll dismiss the Hawks and Heat. While the Hawks might be the most athletic team in the Eastern Conference, they also tend to lose their focus for months at a time. Last year’s Hawks started 11-3 before going 36-32 the rest of the way. The Heat don’t have the depth of the other three Eastern Conference giants. Dwyane Wade has carried the team thus far with a league-best 29.7 points per game average. Jermaine O’Neal is next in line with 13.6 points per game. That sounds more like a 50-win team than a 60-win team. And it will likely take 60 to earn the top seed in the East.

Maybe Doc needs a night off. (AP)

On to the breakdown of the other three teams.

The Celtics: The Green have shown reason for concern after bursting out of the gates to a 5-0 start. The Celtics dominated in those five wins; the margin of victory for each respective game was 6, 33, 28, 1o and 31. The team is 2-3 since, including losses in each of their last two games. The biggest cause for concern for this aging team is a common theme over the last week: fatigue. After Friday’s loss to the Hawks, in which the C’s were out-rebounded 47-29, we heard that the Celtics had yet to recover from an eight-games-in-12-days stretch to start the season. After Saturday’s loss the Pacers, in which the Celtics’ vaunted defense allowed 113 points, we heard the Celtics were late on their rotations to perimeter shooters.

In Celtics beat reporter Frank Dell’Apa’s story about the tired Celtics in yesterday’s Boston Globe, Doc Rivers had this to say about his team’s recent back-to-back struggles.

“I still think the amount of games does have an impact,’’ Rivers said. “I thought I made a mistake on Thursday, I thought we went way too hard in practice, and I thought it carried over to our back-to-backs on Friday and Saturday. I knew that and I thought we could get away with it, and I was wrong.”

That doesn’t sound like a coach who is confident in his team’s ability to maintain a championship-like energy level over an 82-game schedule. And that’s why I suggest the Celtics should concede the top seed in the Eastern Conference sooner rather than later. Look, this isn’t the 2007-2008 season when the Celtics needed to make a statement to the rest of the NBA every single night. If they stay healthy, we know the C’s are going to be playing into May and possibly June.

I suggest Doc should treat this team the same way Gregg Popovich treats his aging Spurs team. ‘Pop’ routinely uses the regular season as a gradual ascent to the postseason. He makes a habit out of DNP-ing his top players during the regular season for no good reason. His guys aren’t hurt, they’re not tired, but they still sit on the bench for 48 minutes. Last February 3, ‘Pop’ gave Tim Duncan, Tim Parker, Manu Ginobili and Michael Finley the night off on the second night of a back-to-back. They were all dressed and ready to play. ‘Pop’ never called their numbers. The Spurs have played eight games so far this season. Duncan and Parker have missed two games each with no injuries to speak of. And ‘Pop’ doesn’t restrict off-days to his players. On October 16, Popovich missed a preseason game – not because he was sick — but because he wanted the night off. Who would be opposed to seeing Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace and Ray Allen get 10 DNPs each sprinkled throughout the regular season? We’ll call it the ‘JD Drew, My Health Is More Important Than This Win’ plan.

The Cavaliers: After starting 0-2, the Cavs have turned it around in a hurry. They’ve won their last five and eight of their last nine. It seems as if it took two games for the Cavs to figure out how to use Shaquille O’Neal and come to grips with the fact that they could be without Delonte West for the entire season. LeBron is being LeBron (27.5 ppg, 7.6 apg, 7.2 rpg), and they’ve learned Shaq is most effective when he’s playing 22-24 minutes a night. The Diesel is averaging 11.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game, and (note to Doc Rivers) he took a night off last evening. Perhaps more importantly for the Cavs, Anthony Parker shook the deer-in-headlights look after a rough start in favor of a more serviceable, ‘I’ll just stand out here and can my open 3-pointers’ expression. He’s knocking down 59.5 percent of his 3-pointers and 85.7 percent of his free throws in 31.1 minutes per game. My money is on the Cavs to take the top seed in the East.

The Magic: Orlando could be in trouble. For the second year in a row, the Magic may be looking for a midseason trade for a point guard now that Jameer Nelson will miss the next 4-8 weeks due to a torn meniscus in his left knee. Since they let Rafer Alston walk last offseason, they don’t have the depth they’d like at that position. In the meantime, let’s enjoy watching Nelson’s temporary replacement, ‘White Chocolate’ Jason Williams, torment coach Stan Van Gundy with behind-the-back passes and game-changing turnovers.

Another reason this team is fatally flawed is its reliance on Vince Carter to create his own shot in a way that Dwight Howard can’t. The Magic let Hedo Turkoglu walk last offseason in favor of Vince Carter, hoping that ‘Vinsanity’ would be a better fit for the team’s perceived need of a No. 1 scoring option. The thought was that Carter would drive the lane, draw double-teams and kick the ball out to the array of Magic shooters (Rashard Lewis, Nelson, Mikael Pietrus, Ryan Anderson, J.J. Redick). That sounds good in theory. In practice, Carter doesn’t drive the lane. ‘Air Canada’ has played in just seven of the Magic’s 11 games, and that’s not because Van Gundy has given him nights off. In his seven games, he’s been to the free throw line 14 times and pulled down five offensive rebounds. So he’s not spending much time in the paint. In fact, he’s attempted 43 3-pointers — almost five per game. To review, the Magic let Turkoglu walk because he couldn’t create his own shot even though there was no shot more deadly in last year’s playoffs than Turkoglu’s spot-up 3-pointer. In exchange, they acquired Carter, who appears to model his game after Turkoglu. Nice job, Orlando.

Without further ado, here are my up-to-date power rankings in the three-headed race for the Eastern Conference regular-season title.

1. Cavs
2. Celtics
3. Magic

Now that we’ve all spent the better part of the last 24 hours listening to people rip Bill Belichick, let me share what I love about the Patriots coach in wake of the most costly decision of his career in New England. I love the way Belichick is handling the fallout. Most coaches might allow one awful decision to be the breaking point for a season that spirals out of control. Not Coach Bill. His team will be stronger because of this. Belichick will prevent any doubt from creeping in the heads of his players. He’s doing everything right in the wake of Sunday’s disastrous loss to the Colts.

To understand how he’s spinning this into a positive, we have to acknowledge that he didn’t make the decision to go for it on fourth down from his own 28-yard-line because he’s the type of guy who fears repercussions. He simply wants to win games, and he never doubts himself. You can question his decision, but you can’t question his motive. During yesterday’s interview circuit, Belichick seemed to follow through on his conviction by giving zero thought to his public perception. In fact, he cared so little about his public image, he showed up to yesterday’s press conference in cutoff sweatpants (see photo).

Belichick won't even upgrade to jorts. (AP)

By the end of the day, former players such as Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison were coming off like talking heads, pouncing on their opportunities to rip their former coach to demonstrate their own objectivity. Bruschi wrote: “The decision to go for it would be enough to make my blood boil for weeks.” Harrison said: “This is the worst coaching decision I’ve ever seen Belichick make.” Belichick could have responded with a snide remark about either player at any point during the day. But rather than divide his locker room between the guys who played with Bruschi and Harrison and the guys who didn’t, Belichick answered, “Everybody’s entitled to their opinion out there. I respect that.” He didn’t take shots at his detractors. Why would he? He doesn’t care about them. With that, Belichick turned into the sympathetic figure who is unafraid to make big decisions. Harrison and Bruschi came off like has-beens who took shots from their national perches.

To give you an idea of whether or not Belichick had won over New England fans at the end of his media tour yesterday, WEEI.com conducted a poll asking readers if Belichick made the right call by going for it on fourth down. Bear in mind, this was a call that blatantly blew the game. There’s little argument that it was the wrong call in retrospect. It didn’t work out. Still, 48 percent of the people voted: “Yes, Belichick made the right call.” Now, was this because WEEI.com posted an extremely confusing poll that was titled, “Did Belichick blow it?” but then asked the question, “Did Belichick make the right call?” I suppose that could have been it. But I’m going to stick with my theory that Belichick is incapable of losing his players or his fan base.

Having witnessed the Andy Reid era in Philadelphia for the last 12 years, I can honestly say I wish Reid would blow a call this blatantly once in a while. And I’m not talking about blowing three timeouts on the opening drive of the second half. Reid has spent the last 12 years deciding whether or not his team should go for two points after each touchdown by revisiting his “scoring chart,” which breaks down the percentages of all possible scoring differentials. At times, the Eagles will go up 6-0 and Reid will stupidly consult his chart to make sure an extra point is in order. If the Eagles encounter fourth down, Reid only has two choices: punt or kick a field goal. If there’s any chance he might get ripped in the postgame fallout, he makes the decision that will pass the buck to his players. That’s boring, gutless football. That’s why every year is the same with the Eagles.

Yesterday, the authors of the site Advanced NFL Stats came up with a formula to prove that Belichick actually made the right call because the Patriots were more likely to convert on fourth-and-2 than stop Peyton Manning from driving 70-plus yards in two minutes. The irony of that column is that Belichick wouldn’t have used that formula. He had all the information he needed, which was the evidence from the previous 58 minutes of game-time. His defense was tapped, Manning couldn’t be stopped, his team’s only hope was converting on fourth down. It may not have been the right call, but does anyone think the Pats defense was prepared to stop Manning from driving 70 yards in two minutes? Please. That’s my boy, Peyton Manning. He gets it done.

So Belichick proved to be a mix between Bruce Willis in “Die Hard” and the type of guy who will hit on your girlfriend right in front of you. He has some serious sack. Is he always right? No. But he’s the type of guy who gets what he wants. The Pats are in good hands. Let’s stop killing the man in the arena.

It’s not every day you wake up in New England and have to digest the thought of Bill Belichick standing in the way of a win for his football team. We’ve heard a lot of shaky explanations from Belichick over the years — some regarding injured players, others in which he refused to assess blame after losses, and even some in which he addressed allegations of cheating – but it’s tough to imagine if he’s ever used an explanation that fits this situation. When he’s speaking to Glenn Ordway and friends this afternoon, will he say, “We make decisions that we feel give us the best chance to win the game”? Or how about, “Everyone has a hand in this. It’s never one person”?

Bill lost his mind mid-game. (AP)

It’s time for Belichick to fall on the sword following his team’s 35-34 loss to the Colts last evening. In a span of 15 minutes, the Patriots went from a team that looked invincible to a team that suffered the worst loss of the NFL season. Belichick made a cardinal mistake for any coach with his team leading 34-28 with just over two minutes to play. He took the game out of his players’ hands and gave himself a critical role in the proceedings. With his offense on the field facing fourth-and-2 from its own 28-yard-line, he decided to go for it. A first down would have effectively clinched the game, keeping Peyton Manning off the field. Instead, Belichick gave Manning a 29-yard field to work with against a depleted defense.

It was the type of call that typically works out for Belichick. He made a somewhat similar call against the Falcons earlier this year — going for it on fourth down from his own side of the field before the game was sealed. I lauded that move, so I can’t exactly prepare the stockades for Belichick this week. Had his decision worked out, we all would have been calling Belichick a relentless competitor today. He’d be known as the type of guy who knows how to put the hammer in the coffin. Since the decision failed, Belichick is a moron. He took the game out of his players’ hands. On a scale of brazen behavior, Belichick will have a difficult time outdoing himself. He’d have to show up to next week’s game, park in Bob Kraft’s parking spot, place Tom Brady on the inactive list and try to beat the Jets with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Never put it past him.

Realistically, what can we expect from the Patriots going forward? For one, let’s lock in the Pats for a seven-game winning streak to close the season. If we know Belichick, we know he’ll use last night’s game as some type of motivational ploy for his players. He’ll paint himself as the goat and ask his players to dig him out of this hole. He’ll pull some rabbit out of a hat to parlay this into a 13-3 season. Second, we can expect a a few 2007-esque 52-7 victories. For now, Belichick is done putting himself in positions in which his decisions will impact the game. Brady looked as close to 100 percent last evening as we’ve seen in two years. The Patriots offense had no problem moving the ball all night, and had Laurence Maroney held on to the ball at the goal line in the third quarter (poor Maroney), the Pats would have hung 41 points on the undefeated Colts. Prepare for the Pats to go into F-U mode the rest of the way.

In the long run, last night’s loss won’t be the worst thing for the Pats. They proved they can play with anyone. There’s no longer any doubt they have all the tools to win a Super Bowl this season. Perhaps you could even say they can dominate a Super Bowl favorite for extended stretches. The Pats don’t have anything to worry about in the AFC East — in fact, God help the Jets this coming week as they prepare to visit Foxboro. This loss may even prevent Belichick from metaphorically parking in Bob Kraft’s parking space ever again.

Hang in there, Pats fans. There are better days to come.

A few other notes from a day in the NFL …

Sebastian Vollmer won’t be giving up his job any time soon. The Patriots right tackle seems like an upgrade over Matt Light to me. Anybody else? During every broadcast, we hear about how the 6-foot-8, 315-pound German earned effusive praise from Belichick in the pregame interviews. Belichick says Vollmer, who couldn’t even speak English before he was drafted this year, can still grow to be “as big as he wants to be.” What a second-round steal for the Pats. With one of the final picks in the round, they acquired a monster who can block Dwight Freeney without a double-team as a rookie, and who may or may not become a 375-pound road grader within the next two seasons.

The Bengals are a top-five team in the NFL. It’s tough to take the Bengals seriously based on their pathetic history, but you could make a serious argument for Cincinnati being the best team in the NFL. At 7-2, the Bengals have swept the defending champion Steelers and Ravens. They would be 8-1 had it not been for Denver receiver Brandon Stokley’s fluke 90-yard touchdown reception in the closing seconds of the Week 1 game. The Bengals didn’t allow a single touchdown to the Steelers yesterday in an 18-12 victory. And when the Steelers took the ball for their final possession of the game, trailing 18-12, the Bengals forced a turnover on downs after four plays. The Bengals also have the best red zone offense when you rate their touchdown percentage. They’re legit.

Maurice Jones-Drew single-handedly beat the Jets. The Jaguars running back was, without question, the best player on the field in his team’s 24-22 victory over the Jets. He carried the load all game, logging 145 yards of total offense and a touchdown. He had about five runs in which a Jets player held on to his ankle for dear life as he attempted to break loose for a 50-yard gain. Had he pealed off any of those runs, he would have been well over 200 rushing yards for the day. Regardless, he had the smart move of the day, when he finally broke a big run in the closing minute of the game, with his team trailing 22-21. Rather than carry the ball into the end zone for his second score, he took a knee at the 1-yard-line. The move allowed the Jags to run out the clock and kick the game-winning field goal as time expired. It was the anti-Belichick move of the day. There is a precedence for this move. Eagles tailback Brian Westbrook pulled the same move in a victory over the Cowboys in 2007, allowing the Birds to run out the clock at the 1.

Speaking of Brian Westbrook, his career probably is over. In the most predictable Eagles loss of the season, the bad news got worse when Westbrook suffered his second concussion in four games. After Westbrook missed the last two games due to recurring concussion symptoms (headaches, etc.), Andy Reid felt comfortable putting him back on the field in yesterday’s 31-23 loss to the Chargers. Somewhere along the way, Westbrook took another blow to the head and spent the rest of the game staring at the field blankly from the sideline. Westbrook had that look on his face that makes it seem like he’s trying to digest all of the action on the field, but it’s moving 100 mph and he can’t catch up. For his own sake, let’s hope Westbrook remains on the bench for a while.

Ignore Donovan McNabb’s 450 passing yards. They were meaningless. He moved his team between the 20s and routinely stalled in the red zone. Then he put up a ton of passing yards after his team was trailing 28-9. Without even looking, I’m sure McNabb blasted the Eagles defense after the game. We’ve been here before, Eagles fans.

Fantasy heroes: Chris Johnson (232 total yards, 2 TDs), Randy Moss (9 catches, 179 yards, 2 TDs), Brandon Marshall (5 catches, 134 yards, 2 TDs), Reggie Wayne (10 catches, 126 yards, 2 TDs), Beanie Wells (117 total yards, 2 TDs), Steven Jackson (176 yards, 1 TD), Peyton Manning (327 passing yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs), Adrian Peterson (143 yards, 2 TDs), Tom Brady (375 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT), Reggie Bush (98 yards, 2 TDs), LaDainian Tomlinson (96 yards, 2 TDs).

Fantasy zeroes: Pierre Thomas (42 total yards), Ben Roethlisberger (174 passing yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), Rashard Mendenhall (41 total yards), Jay Cutler (307 passing yards, 0 TD, 5 INTs), Marques Colston (23 total yards), Vincent Jackson (1 catch, 10 yards), Marion Barber (37 total yards), Hines Ward (24 total yards).

Bill Belichick’s destruction of Peyton Manning from 2001 to 2004 sparked my interest in sports gambling. Actually, that’s not giving Belichick enough credit. From 2001 to 2004, I made more money on Patriots-Colts games than any other annual sporting event — ever. I literally would wait for the annual Patriots-Colts showdown and bet as much money as I could reasonably afford to lose on the Patriots. Belichick never let me down.

The moments that always stick out when you reflect on Belichick’s utter domination of Manning are the ones in which No. 18 angrily snapped off his chinstrap as he hung his head while walking off the field. In most of my memories, it’s snowing and Ty Law is running to the sideline with a football in his hands as Belichick happily smacks him on the helmet. The Pats-Colts game was always easy money. The rest of America loved the Colts. The line would creep in the Colts’ favor. I’d bet the house on the Patriots. Those were the days.

Can you bring out the old Peyton, Bill? (AP)

When we look back at those games, we can honestly say it was the most recent instance of Belichick completely climbing into the head of an opposing star quarterback and owning him for an extended period of time. Belichick discovered something about Manning that no other coach could discover during that four-year stretch. For all the film that No. 18 studied, and all the timing routes he threw, he thrived on familiarity. He wanted to win the game through his preparation. He needed a sense of comfort and timing.

Belichick gave him neither. We all remember the 2003 and 2004 AFC championship games in which the Patriots had several defensive series when they rushed one defensive lineman and dropped 10 men in coverage. Even though Manning had as much time as he needed in the pocket, he couldn’t get the mental clock out of his head. The happy feet would resurface, he’d tap the ball angrily with his left hand, and he’d rush an inaccurate throw in the face of zero pressure. Last Sunday night, we heard Rodney Harrison tell a story on NBC’s broadcast about the 2004 AFC championship game. In preparation, Belichick told Harrison and Law they would switch positions for a week. Harrison would play cornerback and Law would play strong safety. Manning panicked the moment he saw a defensive look he had never seen on film. Even Harrison’s NBC colleague, Tony Dungy, admitted that his former quarterback went the entire game without being able to identify the Patriots’ base coverage scheme.

For those types of reasons, Manning started his career with six consecutive losses in Foxboro. After Tom Brady earned the Patriots’ starting quarterback job in 2001, the Patriots won six straight meetings against the Colts. The turning point came in 2005 when Belichick no longer had the horses to play any head games with Manning. Law had moved on, Harrison was hurt and Belichick’s secondary boasted players such as Duane Starks, Michael Stone and Ellis Hobbs. We all know if you give Manning an inch, he’ll take a yard. He passed for 321 yards and three touchdowns in a 40-21 Colts win. From the start, Belichick coached the game like a man who knew his team was overmatched. Manning started the game by marching his team down the field for a 54-yard touchdown drive that spanned 2:23. On the ensuing drive, Belichick seemed to realize he wouldn’t be able to do anything to stop Manning, so when his team stalled on the Colts’ 21-yard line, he went for it on fourth-and-1. Belichick seemed to admit, with Manning on the sideline, that he needed touchdowns — not field goals. Where was the gamesmanship Belichick had practiced in previous seasons?

The rivalry has never been the same since. The Colts are 4-1 against the Pats since 2005. The lone Patriots victory came in their perfect regular season of 2007. Even in that game — a 24-20 Pats win — the Colts led 20-10 with 9:42 remaining. If, in fact, the days of Belichick’s domination of Manning are over, we can always reflect on those golden years from 2001 to 2004. I know I’m not the only one who made money on the Pats. But even as someone who has no vested interest in either team, I’m hoping to see one more blast from the past on Sunday night. Belichick has about 12 young defensive backs, all of whom have dreadlocks flowing out of their helmets. Maybe we’ll learn on Sunday that he drafted all of them for this very purpose: to confuse Manning when they’re on the field at the same time. Then, for perhaps one final time, we’ll remember what it feels like when Belichick gets the best of Manning.

On to the Best of the Week.

Story of the Week: If you’re a fan of the NBA, you should read CBSSports.com senior writer Ken Berger’s indictment of the situation in New Orleans on the heels of Byron Scott’s dismissal as head coach. It’s vicious. He’s not impressed by team president Hugh Weber’s decision to replace Scott with general manager Jeff Bower. Here’s the best part of the column.

Firing Scott may or may not have solved anything. That’s not the point. The point is that the front man for this disastrous turn of events Wednesday was not a credible NBA coach — no offense, Coach Bower — but rather an empty suit who knows his way around a board room but not a basketball court.

Before joining the Hornets when they were in Oklahoma City in the wake of Katrina, Weber worked for Proctor & Gamble and then a company called Ventura Foods, which he grew into a $2 billion business. Good for him. Ventura Foods makes Hidden Valley Ranch salad dressing. This is the stuff of a columnist’s dreams, stuff you can’t make up.

So when Weber was finishing squirting Thousand Island all over Bower’s face, he moved onto Scott, whom he accused of offering “no specific direction” on how to solve the Hornets’ problems.

Quote of the Week: I’m going to give this one to Theo Epstein, who tried to put a positive spin on Jason Varitek’s decision to exercise his $3 million option for 2010.

“We’re happy to have Jason back and we look forward to a good year from him in 2010,” Epstein said.

Isn’t that like saying, “We’re thrilled to have Manny Ramirez on our team, and we look forward to an incident-free season in 2010?”

E-mail of the Week: The Gravy e-mailed a group invitation to a day-after-Thanksgiving Wiffle Ball game this week. Unfortunately, I’ll miss the game this year because I’ll be out of town. I replied to his group e-mail to commit to the 2010 Wiffle Ball game, and he responded with the e-mail of the week.

“Moonlight Graham would have made the trip.”

Comment of the Week: For the second week in a row, I don’t think the best comment is appropriate for a re-run in the body of a story. There are rules. But you can check out the responses to Tuesday’s Joke Book for a good laugh.

"You're under arrest, sir." (AP)

Conversation Starter of the Week: Walk up to the first person you see on your lunch break and say, “Were you the woman on Oprah who got attacked by a chimp?”

Tip of the Week: If you’re the former heavyweight champion of the world, you’ve spent multiple years in jail and you’re on probation for cocaine possession, don’t punch out a photographer in the middle of an airport and then make a citizen’s arrest of that person.

What Would Jason Varitek Do? Let’s say you’re out watching the Pats-Colts game with a few friends on Sunday night. It’s you, your best buddy and one of his friends from work. At some point in the night, your buddy’s friend tells you he’s engaged. He feels awkward for bringing it up since you’re not invited to the wedding, so he asks you to stop by if you’re not busy. What would Jason Varitek do? He’d show up to the ceremony in a tuxedo 15 minutes early, then he’d stay until the bitter end of the reception, milking double-digit drinks from the open bar tab.

Stat of the Week: Jay Cutler threw five interceptions in the Bears’ 10-6 loss to San Francisco last night. Two of those picks came in the red zone and the final one was intercepted in the end zone. Over the last two seasons, Cutler leads the league in interceptions thrown in the red zone. Here is the list of top four offenders.

Most red zone interceptions over the last two seasons:
Jay Cutler: 9
David Garrard: 4
Matt Ryan: 4
Drew Brees: 4

Video of the Week: Here’s a submission from an American Idol hopeful contestant. Fast-forward to the 30-second mark if you’re getting impatient.

You already know it’s going to be a huge week in the NFL. We have the annual meeting between the Pats and Colts, the final meeting between the Steelers and Bengals and the first Thursday night game since Week 1. Rather than waste time, let’s get right to the picks.

Last week’s record: 7-6

Season record: 61-67-1

Home teams are in caps.

Chicago (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO

Question of the week: How do you feel about the first week of Thursday night football?

I’m thrilled about it, but my wife could probably do without it. And I’m sure that’s probably the common sentiment across America. Let’s face it, the NFL is probably the bane of every marriage counselor’s existence. Every year around August, we start putting a bug in the ears of women everywhere, completely overselling our Sunday routines. “Honey, I can’t wait for the NFL season. It’s my favorite part of the year. It gives me a chance to catch up with all of my old buddies (read: people who sit near me at the bar) that I’ve neglected for the last eight months. Sundays are special to me.” For the first few weeks, your significant other might even be happy for you around 1 o’clock on Sundays. “Have fun at the bar today.” By Week 4, you’re getting cautious advice: “Now take it easy today. You know we have dinner plans on Tuesday night. Remember how you felt last week?” By midseason, the confused looks you used to get at 9 p.m. on Sundays have turned into disgusted death stares. “Oh, you did it again. Didn’t you?” I’m in my first year of marriage, and I still have the green light on Sundays. I’m not even sure I’ll broach the subject of Thursday night football. In fact, let me know how tonight’s game goes.

Jacksonville (+6.5) over JETS

Question: What happened to all the Mark Sanchez hype?

It’s lost some steam over the last few weeks. And I don’t see Sanchez turning it around any time soon. The Jets have lost four of their last five, and Sanchez ranks 30th in the NFL with a 53.3 completion percentage. The Southern California native doesn’t figure to thrive in November and December, when the Jets play four games at the Meadowlands, one at New England and one at Buffalo. And while we’re here, the Rex Ryan train also has lost some steam since the Jets’ 3-0 start. His team is allowing an average of 20.2 points per game over the last five weeks.

Denver (-3.5) at WASHINGTON

Question: Isn’t it ironic that Kyle Orton once played on the same team as Rex Grossman?

It is because the two players are polar opposites. Orton gets himself in trouble because he’ll go entire games without attempting a single pass downfield. He’s fine with the screens, check-downs and short sideline routes. But he’ll go entire games without attempting a single pass that travels 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. The Steelers defense intercepted Orton three times on Monday night simply by keeping all 11 defensive players within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage and closing passing lanes. So Orton is mistake-prone only because he’s so predictable in his refusal to make mistakes. Grossman, on the other hand, loved flashing his arm when he was with the Bears. He audibled out of the play calls just to attempt 50-yard passes on third-and-1. He’d throw into double-coverage in the end zone just because he was tired of picking up four yards at a time. He’d even completely disregard the game plan on a team that thrived on defense and special teams just so he could sling the rock into the smallest windows imaginable. Still, I’ll take Sexy Rexy 10 times out of 10. You can teach a dog to stop crapping on the rug, but you can’t teach the crap on the rug to be a dog.

PITTSBURGH (-7) over Cincinnati

Question: Am I still feeling good about the Steelers as my preseason pick for Super Bowl champion?

Absolutely. The Steelers (6-2) suffered both of their losses while Troy Polamalu was out with a knee injury. In both losses (to Chicago and Cincinnati), the opposing team put together a game-ending drive that sealed the Steelers’ defeat. There’s no way that would have happened with Polamalu on the field. He’s only played in 3½ games this season and he’s tied for fourth in the AFC with three interceptions and tied for seventh with10 passes defensed. With him in the lineup, the Steelers have allowed 12.8 points per game. Without him, they’ve allowed 22.0. The Steelers are 4-0 with Polamalu this season. They’ve beaten Tennessee, Cleveland, Minnesota and Denver. The Steelers have won 13 of their last 14 with Polamalu in the lineup over the last two seasons. Since he is 100 percent healthy at the moment, I’ll even take the Steelers as my Super Bowl pick leading in to Week 10.

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Buffalo

Question: Is there any way the Titans run the table and make the playoffs?

That’s been a topic of discussion this week, but I can’t imagine it happening. It’s tough to picture Vince Young leading any NFL team to 10 straight wins, particularly the Titans (2-6), who still have to play Houston, Arizona, Indianapolis, Miami and San Diego. Still, it’s unforgivable that Jeff Fisher stuck with Kerry Collins for so long considering the Titans immediately had the feel of an 11-5 team after they changed quarterbacks. I’m cheering for the Titans to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs by a game.

MINNESOTA (-17) over Detroit

Question: How much does this game mean to you?

It means everything. Forget about Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh or New England vs. Indianapolis. Any time I get to witness the Ol’ Gunslinger having fun, it’s the game of the week for me. I just hope No. 4 realizes how much fun he brings to the NFL … and society.

New Orleans (-14) over ST. LOUIS

Question: What should you do if you’re playing against Drew Brees this week in fantasy football?

Pray this game is not televised.

CAROLINA (+1.5) over Atlanta

Question: Are we still comparing Matt Ryan to Tom Brady in New England?

I know we all adopted Boston College alumnus Matt Ryan as one of our own last fall when he was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. This year, I think we’ll happily admit that “Matty Ice” is a native of Exton, Pa. He just lived in New England for four years of college. In his last three games (two of which were losses), Ryan threw four touchdown passes and six interceptions. Ryan ranks 20th in the league in passer rating (82.2), just behind Seneca Wallace (83.2).

Tampa Bay (+10) over MIAMI

Question: Why is Miami a 10-point favorite?

It’s a good question, because the Dolphins aren’t the type of team that posts lopsided victories. But you can’t discount the home-field advantage in Miami. Sure, the crowd doesn’t really care as much as other places such as Kansas City or Oakland, but it’s safe to say players get “distracted” in Miami. The Dolphins are 4-0 against the spread this season at home. The almost beat Indianapolis at home in Week 2 (a 27-23 loss). They beat Buffalo (38-10) and the Jets (31-27) in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively. And they had New Orleans on the ropes in Week 7 before falling 46-34. Miami sounds like the perfect place crappy employees should take their bosses to ask for raises. It seems people let their guard down in Miami more than most places.

OAKLAND (-2) over Kansas City

Question: Isn’t this the part of the column where you usually say, “Who cares?”

It is, but I actually do care about this game. The Chiefs have allowed 400-plus total yards in six of their eight games. I’m dying to see an offense led by JaMarcus Russell can put up 400 yards. Honestly, this game has huge potential. If you’re not interested in seeing JaMarcus Russell attempt a Hail Mary from his own 20-yard line at the end of the first quarter, this game isn’t for you.

ARIZONA (-8.5) over Seattle

Question: What’s on the mind of Kurt Warner’s fantasy football owners right now?

Based on first-hand experience, I can tell you we’re ecstatic about last week, but at the same time, we’re resigned to the fact that Warner will eventually lay a season-killing egg. Prior to the season, I did the math on Warner and figured that with a receiving corps that included Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston he’d throw about 32 touchdowns. Well, he has 16 through eight games, but it’s a fantasy-killing 16. Two weeks ago, he had five turnovers against the Panthers. Last week, he had five touchdowns against the Bears. Some weeks, Warner singlehandedly loses a fantasy matchup for your team. Other weeks, he carries your team. I can’t wait to lose in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

SAN DIEGO (-2) over Philadelphia

Question: Since this Eagles season has played out 10 times over the last 10 years, what part of the season is this?

This is the part where they hit rock bottom. Last year, the Eagles tied the Bengals on Nov. 16 to drop to 5-4-1. The tie was infuriating for several reasons. For one, the Eagles seemed to eliminate themselves from the playoff picture by failing to beat a 1-8-1 team. Perhaps a more frustrating aspect of the game was that Donovan McNabb didn’t realize an NFL game could end in a tie. Eagles fans fired up the “Get rid of Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb” talk after that game, and then the Birds showed that things actually could get worse the following week. After trailing 10-7 against the Ravens at halftime, Reid benched an interception-prone McNabb for Kevin Kolb, who threw three more picks in the second half, and the Eagles lost 36-7. Their record was 5-5-1. The season was over. Then the Eagles carried out another Reid-McNabb tradition — finishing the season strong — and they won five of their last six regular-season games before advancing to the NFC championship game.

Well, this year’s Birds dropped to 5-3 with a frustrating loss to Dallas on Monday night. The Eagles are 1-8-1 in their last 10 games decided by six points or less. Why? Because they can’t run a two-minute drill, Andy Reid consistently bungles clock management and McNabb falters down the stretch. The Eagles showed what they’re capable of on the West Coast last month when they lost to the Raiders. Prepare yourselves, Eagles fans. We’re approaching rock bottom.

Dallas (-3) over GREEN BAY

Question: Does anyone else miss former Sports Illustrated columnist Paul Zimmerman (Dr. Z)?

That guy was the best. He hasn’t written anything since his stroke last year, but if he were still writing, he would absolutely have ripped the Sunday Night Football broadcast crew last week for its shameless promotion of Cowboys receiver Miles Austin. Dr. Z was the most thorough NFL writer in the business. Up until last season, he literally requested game tapes of every single NFL game each season, and then he’d break down each position for his annual all-pro picks. Players started to feel more of a sense of pride for being named to Dr. Z’s team than the actual AP All-Pro team. He was so good at what he did, he was once offered a job as TV analyst for one of the major networks. He did it for one season before he was fired because he refused to stick with the predetermined talking points for the broadcast. For instance, if Dr. Z was calling the Pats-Colts game this weekend, the producers might say something like, “You have to appeal to the casual fan. Talk about the brilliance of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning all night.” Dr. Z wouldn’t take the bait. If it was 7-6 heading into the fourth quarter, he would talk about the two teams’ defenses.

Anyway, on Monday night, Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth went in with a plan that they had to talk about Miles Austin. They wanted to tell us about how he’s more than replaced Terrell Owens‘ production. They wanted to tell us about the huge numbers he’s put up since being moved to the starting lineup. The only problem was that Austin had zero catches for zero yards late in the third quarter. Then he beat Eagles cornerback Sheldon Brown with a double move — mainly because the Eagles corner was way too aggressive on the first move — and Austin had his one catch, a 49-yard touchdown grab. Collinsworth nearly shouted, “We’ve been trying to tell you about him all night!” Congratulations, Miles Austin. NBC says you’re our next NFL star.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over New England

Question: So will the Colts have the final laugh on the Patriots this decade?

I don’t think this is the last time these two teams will play each other this season, although I suppose the playoffs will be in 2010. If the teams do meet again, I think the Patriots will be a stronger team the next time they play. For now, I see Peyton Manning abusing the Patriots secondary. The Patriots’ young cornerbacks and safeties have looked great against the Titans, Bucs and Dolphins. Then again, the opposing quarterbacks were Kerry Collins, Josh Johnson and Chad Henne. Let’s see the Pats’ young guys keep up with Reggie Wayne and Co. before we send them to the Pro Bowl. Also, Patriots fans should be nervous about the fact that the Colts won their last two games by a combined seven points (against San Francisco and Houston). If you think Belichick was playing it close to the vest last week against Miami, it’s just as likely Manning was doing the same for the last two weeks. I just envision Manning coming out in some offensive set that completely baffles the Patriots defense — something like a hurry-up offense with an empty backfield. With Anthony Gonzalez back from injury, Peyton will have plenty of weapons. I’ll take the Colts by six this week, and then I’ll take the Patriots in January.

Baltimore (-11) at CLEVELAND

Question: Are you excited about the return of Brady Quinn?

Almost as much as New England’s first 18-inch snowstorm.