Now that we’ve all read just about every possible take on the Bill Belichick situation, let’s take a day to handicap the three-headed race for the top seed in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. Since it’s widely accepted that the Celtics, Cavs and Magic will spend the entire regular season battling for the top seed in the East, I’ll evaluate where each team stands at the moment.

First, let’s take a look at the Eastern Conference standings through three weeks of play.

1. Atlanta (9-2)
2. Miami (7-2)
3. Boston (8-3)
4. Orlando (8-3)
5. Cleveland (7-3)

For the purposes of this discussion, we’ll dismiss the Hawks and Heat. While the Hawks might be the most athletic team in the Eastern Conference, they also tend to lose their focus for months at a time. Last year’s Hawks started 11-3 before going 36-32 the rest of the way. The Heat don’t have the depth of the other three Eastern Conference giants. Dwyane Wade has carried the team thus far with a league-best 29.7 points per game average. Jermaine O’Neal is next in line with 13.6 points per game. That sounds more like a 50-win team than a 60-win team. And it will likely take 60 to earn the top seed in the East.

Maybe Doc needs a night off. (AP)

On to the breakdown of the other three teams.

The Celtics: The Green have shown reason for concern after bursting out of the gates to a 5-0 start. The Celtics dominated in those five wins; the margin of victory for each respective game was 6, 33, 28, 1o and 31. The team is 2-3 since, including losses in each of their last two games. The biggest cause for concern for this aging team is a common theme over the last week: fatigue. After Friday’s loss to the Hawks, in which the C’s were out-rebounded 47-29, we heard that the Celtics had yet to recover from an eight-games-in-12-days stretch to start the season. After Saturday’s loss the Pacers, in which the Celtics’ vaunted defense allowed 113 points, we heard the Celtics were late on their rotations to perimeter shooters.

In Celtics beat reporter Frank Dell’Apa’s story about the tired Celtics in yesterday’s Boston Globe, Doc Rivers had this to say about his team’s recent back-to-back struggles.

“I still think the amount of games does have an impact,’’ Rivers said. “I thought I made a mistake on Thursday, I thought we went way too hard in practice, and I thought it carried over to our back-to-backs on Friday and Saturday. I knew that and I thought we could get away with it, and I was wrong.”

That doesn’t sound like a coach who is confident in his team’s ability to maintain a championship-like energy level over an 82-game schedule. And that’s why I suggest the Celtics should concede the top seed in the Eastern Conference sooner rather than later. Look, this isn’t the 2007-2008 season when the Celtics needed to make a statement to the rest of the NBA every single night. If they stay healthy, we know the C’s are going to be playing into May and possibly June.

I suggest Doc should treat this team the same way Gregg Popovich treats his aging Spurs team. ‘Pop’ routinely uses the regular season as a gradual ascent to the postseason. He makes a habit out of DNP-ing his top players during the regular season for no good reason. His guys aren’t hurt, they’re not tired, but they still sit on the bench for 48 minutes. Last February 3, ‘Pop’ gave Tim Duncan, Tim Parker, Manu Ginobili and Michael Finley the night off on the second night of a back-to-back. They were all dressed and ready to play. ‘Pop’ never called their numbers. The Spurs have played eight games so far this season. Duncan and Parker have missed two games each with no injuries to speak of. And ‘Pop’ doesn’t restrict off-days to his players. On October 16, Popovich missed a preseason game – not because he was sick — but because he wanted the night off. Who would be opposed to seeing Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace and Ray Allen get 10 DNPs each sprinkled throughout the regular season? We’ll call it the ‘JD Drew, My Health Is More Important Than This Win’ plan.

The Cavaliers: After starting 0-2, the Cavs have turned it around in a hurry. They’ve won their last five and eight of their last nine. It seems as if it took two games for the Cavs to figure out how to use Shaquille O’Neal and come to grips with the fact that they could be without Delonte West for the entire season. LeBron is being LeBron (27.5 ppg, 7.6 apg, 7.2 rpg), and they’ve learned Shaq is most effective when he’s playing 22-24 minutes a night. The Diesel is averaging 11.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game, and (note to Doc Rivers) he took a night off last evening. Perhaps more importantly for the Cavs, Anthony Parker shook the deer-in-headlights look after a rough start in favor of a more serviceable, ‘I’ll just stand out here and can my open 3-pointers’ expression. He’s knocking down 59.5 percent of his 3-pointers and 85.7 percent of his free throws in 31.1 minutes per game. My money is on the Cavs to take the top seed in the East.

The Magic: Orlando could be in trouble. For the second year in a row, the Magic may be looking for a midseason trade for a point guard now that Jameer Nelson will miss the next 4-8 weeks due to a torn meniscus in his left knee. Since they let Rafer Alston walk last offseason, they don’t have the depth they’d like at that position. In the meantime, let’s enjoy watching Nelson’s temporary replacement, ‘White Chocolate’ Jason Williams, torment coach Stan Van Gundy with behind-the-back passes and game-changing turnovers.

Another reason this team is fatally flawed is its reliance on Vince Carter to create his own shot in a way that Dwight Howard can’t. The Magic let Hedo Turkoglu walk last offseason in favor of Vince Carter, hoping that ‘Vinsanity’ would be a better fit for the team’s perceived need of a No. 1 scoring option. The thought was that Carter would drive the lane, draw double-teams and kick the ball out to the array of Magic shooters (Rashard Lewis, Nelson, Mikael Pietrus, Ryan Anderson, J.J. Redick). That sounds good in theory. In practice, Carter doesn’t drive the lane. ‘Air Canada’ has played in just seven of the Magic’s 11 games, and that’s not because Van Gundy has given him nights off. In his seven games, he’s been to the free throw line 14 times and pulled down five offensive rebounds. So he’s not spending much time in the paint. In fact, he’s attempted 43 3-pointers — almost five per game. To review, the Magic let Turkoglu walk because he couldn’t create his own shot even though there was no shot more deadly in last year’s playoffs than Turkoglu’s spot-up 3-pointer. In exchange, they acquired Carter, who appears to model his game after Turkoglu. Nice job, Orlando.

Without further ado, here are my up-to-date power rankings in the three-headed race for the Eastern Conference regular-season title.

1. Cavs
2. Celtics
3. Magic

8 Comments for “Cavs have edge on Celtics, Magic”

1. tj Says:
   November 18th, 2009 at 8:22 am

   are you ok….cleveland lebrons #1, i would think the team with the best record would be on top not the team with the biggest d-bag on it

2. KD Says:
   November 18th, 2009 at 9:58 am

   Did you not see that there was a 24 hour college basketball marathon on yesterday? 24 hours! The NBA season is only three weeks old and you are choosing a power rankings article over fresh college hoops? There were about 30 bad calls by refs. that kept the “top 25″ teams undefeated, and you write about the 7-3 Cavs?

   At least mention that BC crushed some high school team by 30 last night!

   I’m leaving your site and reading 38 Pitches from now on. Everyone knows that Curt is going to have a friend write NCAA Basketball related blog entries for him all winter long.

3. Turbo Says:
   November 18th, 2009 at 12:19 pm

   24 hrs of college basketball – yawn. I’d rather watch paint dry.

4. TheGravy Says:
   November 18th, 2009 at 1:21 pm

   What sports fans really need is a 24 hour reality program focused on TheGravy’s wiffleball triumphs.

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