I tried to come up with a formula for picking NFL games last week, and it failed me. So here’s what we’ve learned through six weeks. If you’re looking for me to steer you in the right direction this season, it’s not going to happen. If you’re looking for me to come up with a scheme to break Las Vegas, it’s not going to happen. I’m not bringing down the house, people. You’re on your own. But here’s the good news. On the WEEI.com home page, where they ask all of the site contributors to make weekly picks — without spreads — I have a .750 winning percentage. So thank you, WEEI.com, for making me look good by asking questions such as, “Who’s going to win the Indianapolis-St. Louis game?”

Let’s get right to this week’s picks.

Last week’s record: 6-8

Overall record: 44-46

Home teams are in caps.

KANSAS CITY (+5) over San Diego

Question of the Game: Are LaDainian Tomlinson jokes still in play?

No, we have to retire them for the indefinite future. Picking on LaDainian Tomlinson is like picking on David Ortiz. We all get it. He’s not as good as he used to be. But here’s the bottom line on the Chargers: Their best players aren’t even serviceable anymore. Tomlinson has 140 rushing yards and one touchdown on the season. That used to be a below-average game for him. During crunch time in the loss to Denver on Monday night, he wasn’t even on the field for a third-and-goal. To make matters worse, Shawne Merriman has 13 tackles and zero sacks on the season. That also used to be a below-average game for him. You can’t even pin this entirely on Norv Turner, although that’s like saying you can’t pin the Steve Phillips saga entirely on the former Mets general manager. Just as Turner will fail wherever he goes, Phillips will exercise questionable taste in his “personnel decisions” his entire life.

Indianapolis (-13) over ST. LOUIS

Question: What was up with Jeff Fisher wearing a Colts jersey?

Here’s my theory. Fisher received word that Titans owner Bud Adams recently refused to endorse his 15-year veteran coach beyond this year. So he flexed his muscles by throwing on a Peyton Manning jersey in public — basically saying, “If you want to fire me, fire me.” I liked the move. Would I be psyched if I ever saw Andy Reid sport a Cowboys jersey? Absolutely not. He’d be a dead man walking in my eyes. But since I’m not a Titans fan, I can respect Fisher’s confidence in pulling this off. If Adams wants to fire him, he’ll have another job by the end of the day. He has a 133-114 record as a head coach, and he’s an upgrade over at least 25 coaches in the league.

Chicago (+1.5) over CINCINNATI

Question: Why is Cedric Benson suddenly the spokesman for the Bengals?

I have no idea, but I don’t think it bodes well for the Bengals. Over the course of this week, Benson has made a big deal over the fact that his new team is playing his old team. He’d like the media to jump on this like it’s Brett Favre vs. Green Bay, Part 2. Before you read Benson’s criticism of the way the Bears treated him, take note of the fact that the former first-round pick carried the ball 196 times for the Bears in 2007 and averaged 3.4 yards per carry.

“I heard all the rumors that were said coming out of Chicago,” Benson said Wednesday in a conference call with Chicago media. “Even the Bengals told me they would call and inquire about me and get nothing but negative things — just that I didn’t work hard, that I was a prima donna, or didn’t work hard on the field, or I wasn’t focused. Anything negative they could say, it was said. I’m sure that contributed largely to me not getting picked up right away.”

GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Cleveland

Question: What should we make of the Packers’ decision to choose Aaron Rodgers over  Brett Favre?

It was the right decision. Yes, I realize Favre’s team is 6-0 and the Packers are 3-2. But the Packers defense has allowed at least 30 points in both of the losses. The Packers’ leading rusher, Ryan Grant, averages 3.8 yards per carry. The offensive line has been brutal, allowing 25 sacks through five games. All the while, Rodgers has averaged 291.2 passing yards per game, with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. He has a quarterback rating of 104.1. And he never took a giant dump in my pool of NFL love.

Minnesota (+4) over PITTSBURGH

Question: Doesn’t this feel like the week the Vikings will finally lose?

It does, but it also feels like a three-point game. I could see Ben Roethlisberger leading his team down the field for the winning score in the closing minutes. The media will love it.

“Here we are at Heinz Field where the king of comebacks, Brett Favre, passed the proverbial torch to the next generation of comeback kings, Ben Roethlisberger. Just as he did last year in the Super Bowl, Roethlisberger marched his team down the field in the closing minutes as a solemn Favre looked on from the sideline. After the game, a heroic Favre said, ‘I can never trust my defense. But I love this game so much.’ And that’s what was so evident down the stretch. Favre has so much fun, and he’s still the best player to ever set foot on this planet. But ‘Big Ben,’ who will be 28 in March and has two Super Bowl rings, may someday be half the player Favre is now. I’m Rachel Nichols, E-S-P-N!”

New England (-14.5) over Tampa Bay (at London)

Question: Will this game spark another debate about the Patriots running up the score?

I imagine it will, because apparently you can’t win by more than 21 points in the NFL without the victory being considered unsportsmanlike. This makes no sense to me because we see at least one or two games every year in which a team comes back from a 21-point halftime deficit to steal a game. It happened to the Patriots in the 2007 AFC championship. Still, I received an anti-Patriots e-mail from my uncle on Tuesday morning, ripping New England for running it up on the Titans. Here are my thoughts on that. 1. Anything goes in the first half. If you can score 100 points before the end of the second quarter, you should score 100 points. 2. You can absolutely play your starters for the first series of the second half. After all, if you can build a 45-0 lead by halftime, the other team can outscore your team 45-0 in the second half. Beyond that, if the Titans can’t stop Patriots backup quarterback Brian Hoyer from leading touchdown drives, they deserve to lose by 60 points. An NFL coach should never have to call for a punt on first down, or even worse, ask his backup quarterback to take a knee just to turn the ball over.

To be clear, I was in the camp that felt like the Patriots ran up the score a few times in 2007. Was I offended? No. I couldn’t care less about a lopsided score. But I did find it humorous when Bill Belichick would go for it on fourth-and-2 from the opponent’s 30-yard-line, with his team leading by 40 points, and he’d later explain it by saying his offense was in between punting and kicking territory, so he just decided to go for it rather than miss a kick and turn it over with a short field.

San Francisco (+3) over HOUSTON

Question: Is there anything interesting to share about this game?

The only thing I can think of is that Matt Schaub leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 14. Drew Brees has 13. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have 12 each. That’s the equivalent of Eddie House leading the NBA in scoring in mid-December.

Jets (-6) over OAKLAND

Question: Are we still talking about Mark Sanchez‘ moxie?

Nope. Alex Rodriguez’ and Mark Sanchez’ careers have gone in opposite directions in the last three weeks. Sanchez laid an absolute stink bomb last week, completing seven passes compared to five interceptions in a loss to Buffalo. Rodriguez, on the other hand, has been thrown 126 pitches this posteason. He’s swung at 49, and he’s only missed seven times. So we’ll go easy on calling Sanchez the King of New York. That spot’s reserved for Derek Jeter. A-Rod may now be the Prince of New York. And Sanchez will be the alderman.

CAROLINA (-7) over Buffalo

Question: Is this the worst game of the week?

Yep. The only thing that could possibly salvage this game is if Panthers receiver Steve Smith issued a public apology to his fantasy owners who wasted a second-round pick on him. But look at it from Smith’s perspective. He works for a company (the NFL) that has another employee by the same name who is doing a better job than him. How would you feel if your company hired someone with your name, and he started doubling your production?

MIAMI (+6.5) over New Orleans

Question: Why does everyone keep saying the Saints defense is good?

That’s an early season myth that will get exposed in the coming weeks. The Saints defense looks good now because it’s playing with huge leads. No opposing defensive coordinator can figure out what to do with Drew Brees. So the Saints have jumped out to early leads and then their defense hones in on the opposing team’s one-dimensional passing offense. Aging safety Darren Sharper has jumped a few short passes and returned them for touchdowns. In turn, the Saints have racked up a few blowouts. This week, I like the Dolphins’ ball-control offense against Brees. Miami will do what it did against Peyton Manning in Week 2 and possess the ball for 40-plus minutes. This will be the week the Saints defense is exposed. Or it won’t be. I don’t know why I decided to get serious with this game.

Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS

Question: Since when is Jerry Jones the new coach of the Cowboys?

Apparently, that’s new this season. Because whenever you hear any personnel-related matter in Dallas, you hear about it from Jerry Jones. He informed me via my Yahoo! Fantasy Football injury report this week that the Cowboys would be targeting Jason Witten more in the red zone. He let me know that Marion Barber would not be starting this week; instead, Tashard Choice would be his guy. He let me know Felix Jones was progressing from his injury. And apparently, he decided to replace Patrick Crayton in the starting lineup in favor of Miles Austin. Austin was also surprised to learn that Jerry Jones had taken over coaching responsibilities this week.

“I would have loved it,” Crayton said of an explanation from head coach Wade Phillips or offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. “It would have been real stand-up. That’s not what happened. Oh, well.”

Arizona (+7) over GIANTS

Question: Why did Eli Manning regress five years last week?

I don’t know, but Donovan McNabb did, too. Eli reverted to his days when he used to feel pressure and just throw the ball up for grabs. After an interception last week, Eli turned right around and ripped into Ahmad Bradshaw for failing to pick up a blitzing linebacker. Fox showed a replay of the interception, and it looked bad for Bradshaw, who whiffed on a block, but it looked even worse for Eli, who closed his eyes and threw the ball high into the air in the vicinity of rookie receiver Hakeem Nicks. The lead announcer said something like, “You have to put that one on Bradshaw. He missed his blocking assignment.” To his credit, Troy Aikman replied with something like, “That’s true, but Eli can’t close his eyes and throw the ball into coverage just because he’s about to get hit.”

Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON

Question: What’s next for Jim Zorn?

Former Seahawks receiver Steve Largent, a buddy of Zorn’s, went on the radio yesterday and said he believed Daniel Snyder stripped Zorn of his play-calling responsibilities this week in hopes that he’d resign. Largent said Zorn will never resign. I love the sound of this. It has all the making of Al Davis vs. Lane Kiffin, Part 2. If I’m Daniel Snyder, I’m taking this to the next level. If Zorn won’t resign after you take away the one thing he thinks he does well, strip him of everything. Take away his NFL-sanctioned clothing, and make him wear a sweater and khaki pants on the sideline on Monday night. Ban him from all stadium restrooms. Take away his parking spot, and make him pay $28 like everyone else who has to take a shuttle to the stadium. Go crazy with it, Daniel Snyder. I know you will.

6 Comments for “Making the Week 7 Picks”

1. William Shatner's Dirty Undies Says:
   October 22nd, 2009 at 9:08 am

   Questions like “How is Rachel Nichols gainfully employed when 1 in 10 people are not even working part time?” are the things I ponder while taking my morning grumpy.

2. NC Says:
   October 22nd, 2009 at 11:56 am

   Who is this ‘Ben Roethlisberger’ that you mention? Don’t you mean ‘Ben’?

3. Because I Can Says:
   October 22nd, 2009 at 12:22 pm

   Rachel Nichols has the best O face in the industry.

4. Simon Buckingham Says:
   October 22nd, 2009 at 12:56 pm

   We call it a Cheeri-O face here in London.

5. Flat Top Super Fan! Says:
   October 22nd, 2009 at 3:19 pm

   Hey Dan, you’re a hack! The only place Jim Zorn is going is to the playoffs. The only place Jason Varitek is going is right back behind the plate as the Red Sox Captain. The only place Kurt Warner’s going is heaven. Judging by your picture, you’d be a lot smarter yourself if you just took a little off the top.

6. Polprav Says:
   October 22nd, 2009 at 6:28 pm

   Hello from Russia!
   Can I quote a post in your blog with the link to you?

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