The NBA’s free agency period started today, and it’s time to project what Danny Ainge and Co. have in mind for the Celtics’ offseason strategy. Ainge has never been one to remain idle when he feels his team is lacking the talent needed to make a title run. Remember, he’s the same guy who shipped Antoine Walker out of town almost immediately after taking over the team in 2003 when a Paul Pierce and Antoine-led team fell in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Time to get back on the floor.

Ainge isn’t in it for deep playoff runs. He goes for broke, or, if he senses his team is on the decline, he dismantles with the long-term intention of reloading. So where does Ainge stand on last season? Based on his postseason interviews, it seems he felt the team was a few injuries away from defending its title. If Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe can return to full health, one would think Ainge would have to feel pretty good about the team’s chances in 2009-2010.

Then again, there have been rumors that Ainge has not only made Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen available in the trade market, he’s even initiated trade talks that include his starting backcourt. If that’s the case, maybe we are in for a complete overhaul this offseason. Let’s go through Ainge’s thought process.

Assessing the Celtics: When Ainge looks at his team, his primary concerns have to be age and injuries. Kevin Garnett missed the better part of the second half of last season, including the entire playoffs. At this point in his career, Garnett might be best served playing 28-30 minutes a night during the regular season. Now do the C’s suggest Garnett change his style when he comes back? Can he still be the same player if he stops blocking shots long after a whistle and playing 100 percent on every possession even if the Celtics are up 20? I don’t think so. So you have to roll the dice with Garnett. Let him play the way he always has, and hope he stays healthy. But in all likelihood, with each passing season, Garnett’s role will be reduced more and more. So the window is closing on a Garnett-led Celtics title.

Ray Allen and Paul Pierce also would figure to be on the decline. However, Allen’s coming off the best season of his career. He’s still one of the purest scorers in the game, shooting at a high percentage from the field, 3-point land, and the free throw line. Then again, Allen’s going into the last year of his deal, so Ainge can either trade him or keep him and get nothing for him after the season. Seeing as though Ainge wouldn’t get anywhere near equal value (probably just a bad salary), trading Allen won’t improve the team in 2009-2010.

Finally, Paul Pierce also seemed to lose a step at the end of last season. He had to carry more of the load after Garnett’s injury, and he looked depleted at times in the postseason. The fatigue was most evident in his shot, when he’d step his right foot toward the basket, launch a 3-pointer, and get about three inches off the ground. But he’s still a savvy veteran who can get to the line 10 times a night if he sets his mind to it.

So the Big Three has one year left together. I’d argue, and I think Ainge would agree, the time to win is now. It’s no time to try to get younger by moving established veterans. If I’m Danny Ainge this summer, I’m putting all my stock in the 2009-2010 season, knowing full well many other teams are biding time until next summer when Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh, and many others become free agents.

Assessing the East: The East will likely be another three-team race next season unless the Hawks mature exponentially in the span of a summer. The Cavs should be better, considering they dumped a bunch of bad contracts for Shaquille O’Neal. One thing to consider, though: That move, in no way, guarantees the Cavs the Eastern Conference. Shaq’s still a formidable presence in the low post, but he’s certainly nowhere near the player he was two years ago, let alone 10. He still has some offensive moves, but no longer helps any team on defense. And that’s the Cavs bread and butter. Plus, if history is any indication, Shaq will be less athletic 11 months from now than he was one month ago.

No longer the Diesel

The Magic will not be improved if they lose Hedo Turkoglu in favor of Vince Carter. Turkoglu took so many huge shots — and made them — during the playoffs. He’s one of the best spot-up shooters in the league, he always has a size mismatch, and he’s gone from being anti-clutch with the Kings to super-clutch with Orlando. Vince Carter’s role on the Magic next season will be a generating a million highlights, a few 30-point games, eight DNPs due to an ankle sprain, and a decrease in wins by about 10. He’s a loser.

So there’s no need for any drastic moves from Danny Ainge. A tweak here and there will keep the C’s in the mix.

Assessing the roster: Garnett and Pierce are the least likely to get traded because they have huge contracts, and they won’t return equal value. Kendrick Perkins will be back because he’s cheap, and he’s one of the few natural centers in the league. I don’t believe Rondo will be playing anywhere else other than Boston because Ainge wouldn’t have trashed him publicly if he was trying to increase his trade value. So those four guys will definitely be back.

Assuming the Celtics want an eight-man rotation, they still need a starting shooting guard, a backup point, a big man, and a strong defensive player who can match up against guards and forwards. So if the Celtics are going all-in next season, I can’t see how they’ll do any better than Ray Allen at shooting guard. Yes, by keeping him, you risk losing him for nothing. But the Celtics have four starting positions filled. You wouldn’t trade Ray Allen for two or three rotation guys. That doesn’t make sense. So Ray will be back.

Eddie House opted to stay in Boston last night, and he’s a legitimate option to be the backup point guard. I’m fine with playing Rondo 40 minutes a night, so Ainge only needs to find someone to bring up the ball eight minutes a night. House can do it, and if he can’t, Ray Allen or Pierce can.

Big Baby would be a nice luxury, but he doesn’t really fit the bill of a strong multi-position defensive player or big man. Still, with Garnett’s health in question, the Celtics would be wise to match any offer unless it gets crazy ($6 million-plus per season). Poweplays like a big man, but his health is a big question mark. Would you bank of Powe playing a total of 100 games next season, including the playoffs? Guys like Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine are not rotation guys on a championship team. They plug holes in the event of injuries. But you’d rather not see them on the floor during the playoffs.

So the Celtics should be in the market for a backup big man and a defensive stopper (i.e. James Posey’s replacement).

Would he wear on Boston fans?

What’s available? If the Celtics decide to spend the mid-level exception (about $5.8 million), they could either sign one player to that annual salary, or they could split among two or three players. The Globe’s Mark Spears had a list of unrestricted free agents a few weeks ago. Here’s the list, including a few new additions:

Josh Childress, Raymond Felton, Ben Gordon, Anderson Varejao, Jason Kidd, Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest, Allen Iverson, Hedo Turkoglu, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, Linus Kleiza, Antonio McDyess, Rasho Nesterovic, Nate Robinson, Desmond Mason, Brandon Bass, Chris Anderson, Rasheed Wallace, Hakeem Warrick, Chris Wilcox, Martin Gortat, Grant Hill, and Drew Gooden.

And here’s my evaluation.

Of those guys, here are the guys who could help the Celtics: Raymond Felton, Ben Gordon, Anderson Varejao, Jason Kidd, Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest, Hedo Turkoglu, Brandon Bass, Chris Anderson, Rasheed Wallace, Hakeem Warrick, Martin Gortat.

Of those guys, here are the guys who will sign with a team for the mid-level exception or less: Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd, Brandon Bass, Chris Anderson, Rasheed Wallace, Hakeem Warrick.

If I could guess, Anderson will return to Denver because the Nuggets gave him a chance post-drug addiction. Kidd will return to Dallas because Cuban wants to save face after trading Devin Harris. Felton wants to return to Charlotte.

That leaves Brandon Bass, Rasheed Wallace, and Hakeem Warrick. I could definitely see Sheed signing with the Celtics to play alongside Garnett with a chance to win a title. Sheed is at his best playing in disciplined environments (UNC under Dean Smith, Detroit Pistons under Larry Brown). My guess is Garnett would get the best out of him. Those two always end up hugging 15 times every time the Celtics and Pistons square off. The major coupe would be signing Sheed to a deal for about $3-4 million a year to leave some money on the table for a poor man’s Posey like Hakim Warrick (missing Posey’s offense) or Brandon Bass (missing Posey’s ability to guard three positions).

So if you’re scoring at home, my guess is Ainge will go for broke this season by sticking with his core roster and adding a veteran big man like Rasheed Wallace. And if he can add a defensive stopper on top of that, it will be a huge success.

2 Comments for “Sheed should be on Ainge’s radar”

1. Kevin Says:
   July 1st, 2009 at 1:32 pm

   There’s no way in the world Rasheed signs for less than the mid-level.

2. Clamjam Says:
   July 3rd, 2009 at 8:22 am

   Turkoglu!

Leave a Reply