For those who missed it, I broke down the pending World Series matchup between the Yankees and Phillies by position in yesterday’s blog.  Today, I’ll provide a tale of the tape for the pitching staffs and managerial matchups before making a prediction.

Game 1 starters: CC Sabathia vs. Cliff Lee

When the Yankees spent nearly $450 million in the free agent market last offseason, they started by acquiring a top-notch ace for their pitching staff. Sabathia played the part during the regular season, posting a 19-8 record and 3.37 ERA. Sabathia has been even better in the postseason, logging three wins in three starts. In 22.1 postseason innings, he’s allowed three runs and recorded 20 strikeouts. And the best news for Yankees fans: Sabathia went another season without having his gut burst through his uniform. If Sox fans are upset at Mark Teixeira for lending his services to the highest bidder, they should have equal disdain for Sabathia, unless they’re forgiving him for eating his way through $160 million. All that said, the Phillies have no fear of Sabathia. In last year’s NLDS, the Phils tallied five earned runs in 3.2 innings against Sabathia, dealing the Brewers ace a Game 1 defeat.

The leader of the Phillies

In a genius coup by Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, he acquired Lee at midseason for marginal prospects — refusing to trade his best prospects for Roy Halladay. Lee made Phils fans forget Halladay by winning his first five starts in the National League. He was the Phils’ undisputed ace by the postseason. In three postseason starts, Lee is 2-0 with an 0.76 ERA in three starts. And to give you an idea of the tinkering that went on with the defending champion Phillies at midseason, their Game 1 and Game 2 starters in the World Series were not even members of the team in June.

Edge: Push.

Game 2 starters: A.J. Burnett vs. Pedro Martinez

This game will undoubtedly have intrigue for Red Sox fans, who will get another chance to see Pedro pitch in front of Yankee fans as they serenade him with “Who’s your daddy?” chants. If you’ve been sleeping on Pedro this season, he’s been ridiculously efficient as an extra starter for the Phils. In nine regular season starts, he was 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA. For some reason, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel decided to let Pedro throw 130 pitches in a win over the Mets on September 13, and that, for all intents and purposes, ended his regular season. He came back for Game 2 of the NLCS and channeled some vintage Pedro offspeed junk. Painting the corners and topping out at 91 miles per hour, he pitched seven shutout innings, allowing two hits in what turned out to be a Phillies’ loss. What can we expect from Pedro tomorrow night in Yankee Stadium? Another two-hit shutout? An absolute mauling followed by the end of Pedro Martinez as we remember him? Anything is possible.

As for Burnett, I always compare his career arc to Josh Beckett’s since they both started with the Florida Marlins. Both guys have unbelievable stuff when it’s clicking. Both would prefer to pitch to catchers who can’t hit the ball out of the infield — Jose Molina in Burnett’s case, and Jason Varitek in Beckett’s case. Both can go into funks and get rocked for a couple of weeks at a time. Obviously, Beckett has been much better over his career, particularly in the postseason. Burnett was 13-9 with a 4.04 ERA during the regular season. He’s been OK in the postseason, logging three no-decisions with a 4.42 ERA. If the Phillies can get to Burnett early, look for him to go down in flames.

Edge: Push.

Game 3 starters: Andy Pettitte vs. Cole Hamels

On paper, this should be a huge mismatch. Hamels in the reigning World Series MVP. Pettitte is the guy who allowed Jacoby Ellsbury to steal home on him in April. Unfortunately for the Phils, Hamels hasn’t been acting like the reigning World Series MVP this season. And we’ve found that his pip-squeak voice doesn’t go over well with Philly fans after he gets rocked for the fourth consecutive outing. Before I break down Pettitte, I should really spend the requisite paragraph gushing over how he’s a hero for getting caught taking steroids and then admitting that he, in fact, cheated. Whatever, let’s get to the numbers. Pettitte was 14-8 with a 4.16 ERA this season. In the postseason, he’s 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts. Not good news for Philly fans.

Hamels just had a weird year for the Phillies. Supposedly, he worked the World Series MVP circuit last winter, appearing on late-night talk shows and signing a bunch of endorsement deals. Rather than showing up in peak shape, he said early in the season he’d pitch his way into shape over the course of the season. That didn’t work out as he went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA in the regular season. He’s had an equally disappointing postseason, perhaps partially due to his wife giving birth in the middle of his Game 2 start in the Rockies series. Still, in three postseason starts, he hasn’t made it into the sixth inning, allowing 11 runs in 14.2 innings. Mixed in the middle of about 25 inconsistent starts over the course of the season, Hamels did have about 10 gems. So he’s still capable of that, but for the purposes of the tale of the tape, we have to prepare for another Cole Hamels high-pitched mea culpa.

Edge: Yankees.

Game 4 starters: Same as Game 1 starters.

Bullpen: Mariano Rivera and friends vs. Brad Lidge and friends

The Phillies bullpen has been an absolute nightmare this season. The fact that Brad Lidge has regained his grip on the closer job terrifies any honest Philly fan. The man was 0-8 this season with a 7.21 ERA. He didn’t have an awful month of April before working out his problems around the All-Star Break. He didn’t even have an awful first half before working out his problems down the stretch. He was consistently awful all season. He blew 11 saves in 42 chances. He seemed to blow every fourth save opportunity on a consistent basis all season long. And, yes, he was perfect in his first three save opportunities this postseason.

On the Yankees’ side, Mariano Rivera is the best closer in baseball history. Blah, blah, blah. Yes, I want to finish this paragraph as quickly as possible. I’m not even going to break down the likes of Phil Hughes and Ryan Madson. Just watch the games. You’ll see.

Huge edge: Yankees.

Managers: Joe Girardi vs. Charlie Manuel

From the perspective of New Yorkers, Girardi will never be Joe Torre. So that’s one strike against him. I’m not a huge fan of how Girardi left his managerial job with the Marlins so that he could wait around for a year while Torre finished the final year of his contract. Then he was overwhelmed with the thought that the Steinbrenners might want a former National League Manager of the Year to replace the longtime Yankees skipper. Surprise! Girardi’s a snake. See this site for a list of his poor managerial decisions in the playoffs.

As far as Manuel is concerned, no manager or coach in Philadelphia sports history has forced fans to change their perception of him more in a span of two years. When Manuel first became the manager in 2005, he stumbled his way through the first season, providing the media with a comedy of errors to report. Here are some Charlie Manuel first-year staples: He’d remove his starting pitcher from a game, hand the ball to the catcher and walk back to the dugout before the relief pitcher took the mound. The Phillies infielders were left to give the relief pitcher a pep talk. He also took a ridiculously long time to learn the art of the double-switch — a neccesity for all managers in the National League. To give you an example, let’s pretend this version of the Phillies is playing a game during Manuel’s first year on the job. Manuel would call on Lidge for a four-out save in the bottom of the eighth. Due up for the Phillies in the ninth: the No. 9, 1 and 2 hitters. Rather than make a defensive substitution for the No. 7 or 8 hitter along with Lidge so that they could trade spots in the batting order, Charlie would just make the pitching change. Then Lidge would lead off the ninth inning for the Phils. Those were some priceless moments.

Well, Charlie doesn’t make the same dumb mistakes anymore. He still butchers press conferences, saying things like, “I want Pedro to be our Game 2 starter, because, like, I like him, like, to have the ball, because, it’s like, he’s a starter. He’s not a bullpen guy. I see him, like, I see him as a guy who can start and pitch innings.” At this point, Philly fans just nod their heads because they know Charlie has the Midas touch. He makes crazy roster decisions before each series. They all work out. He pinch hits for key players in the sixth inning. It works out. He changes pitchers every batter from the seventh inning on. It always works out.

After the Phillies captured their second consecutive National League pennant last week, Charlie Manuel took the podium and addressed the fans who stuck around for the postgame festivities. He started in with his broken English: “I couldn’t do this, like, without really great players. These players are, like, some of the best guys I’ve ever seen, like, with a bat and ball. But we’re not done yet! We need four more! …” The cameras panned out to his players, and all of them stared back at Charlie with ear-to-ear smiles. They knew he sounded stupid, but they loved his stupid pep talks. He was their manager, and they were ready to run through a brick wall to win four more for him. Charlie took the heat when times were tough. And now he’s passing the buck when he’s getting showered with praise.

Edge: Phillies.

The pick: Phillies in five.

Over the last two postseasons, the Phillies are 18-5. No team has won more than one game in a series against them. In this year’s NLCS against the Dodgers, they scored 34 runs in their four wins. I’m not predicting the Phillies will rock CC Sabathia in Game 1 (Yes, I am). I’m not predicting A-Rod will struggle (Yes, I am). And I’m not predicting a depressing offseason in New York — a city that hasn’t boasted a World Series champion in nine years (Yes, I am). But if you do the math, Red Sox fans, Pedro will be on the hill in Game 5, mowing down Yankees hitters just like old times (before 2003). Leave him out there for 130 pitches, Charlie. When you’re playing poker, and you’re winning every hand you’re dealt, you don’t walk away from the table.

2 Comments for “Your Phil of World Series predictions”

1. Kristin Tallman Says:
   March 30th, 2010 at 6:19 pm

   Godaddy coupon list. Many of the regular Go Daddy coupons have just changed. Here are the reissued coupons that are working. These coupons will give you a discount at Godaddy. .COM Domain Names or Manual Renewals for just $7.49 – Use Godaddy.com promo codes GOO3, OK9, or ZINE10. 25% discount on orders of $100+ – Use Godaddy coupon code OK25. 30% Discount when you buy any com domain – Use Go Daddy coupon OK30. $12.99 SSL Certificates – Use Godaddy.com promo codes GOOSSL, OKSSL, or ZINESSL. Host Plan Promo Code – 20% Off Hosting – Use Godaddy coupons OK20H, ZINE20H1 or GOO20H. 10% off any size order – Use Go Daddy promo codes OK7, GOO1 or ZINE8. $5 Off $30 or More – Use Godaddy coupons GOO2 or ZINE9. 20% Off Any order of $50 or more – Use Go Daddy coupon code OK8.

2. Yankee fan Says:
   January 30th, 2011 at 5:23 pm

   To quote your own website, thanks for playing.

Leave a Reply